College football scores › Week 7 › Navy at UTSA
BEAVER UTSA −6.5, lostBEAVER Under 54.5, lostBEAVER had UTSA 84% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NAVY–UTSA) | 19–35 | 21–32 | – | 34–38 | |
| Spread | UTSA −16.1 | UTSA −10.3 | UTSA −6.5 | UTSA by 4 | UTSA −6.5 ✗ |
| Total | 53.4 | 52.8 | 54.5 | 72 | Under 54.5 ✗ |
| UTSA win chance | 84% | – | −218 | Won |
NAVY by 14+
3%
NAVY by 1–13
13%
UTSA by 1–13
29%
UTSA by 14+
55%
Spread: 9.6 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened UTSA −7.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.030 #83Offense EPA / play+0.040 #46
+0.097 #101Defense EPA / play allowed−0.013 #46
+1.0% #59Offense success rate+1.4% #56
−1.8% #39Defense success rate allowed−0.3% #61
+0.099 #40Rushing EPA / play+0.163 #17
−0.145 #108Passing EPA / play−0.119 #99
−0.005 #51Rush defense EPA allowed+0.041 #77
+0.299 #133Pass defense EPA allowed−0.001 #54
−6.7 #103Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.6 #54
+4.2 #92Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.0 #80
Situational
−6.4% #111Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.3% #96
+1.7% #88Passing-down success allowed−0.1% #69
−0.77 #102Points per drive−0.08 #70
+0.29 #79Points per drive allowed+0.12 #69
Trenches
+0.45 #15Line yards per rush+0.07 #80
−0.27 #28Line yards per rush allowed+0.10 #85
−6.2% #14Runs stuffed at the line−2.0% #69
+2.2% #38Opponent runs stuffed−2.2% #102
−1.4% #67Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.2% #18
−2.4% #109Havoc created−3.3% #127
Big plays
+0.076 #40Rushing explosiveness+0.032 #58
+0.318 #11Passing explosiveness−0.032 #119
+0.17 #35Open-field yards per rush+0.23 #27
+0.305 #138Pass explosiveness allowed−0.035 #53
Style and schedule
79% #3Run rate56% #57
−15.8 #124Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.8 #57
Navy: last 5 games
| W34-26 | Covered | |
| L9-14 | Missed | |
| L20-24 | Missed | |
| L30-38 | Missed | |
| W42-15 | Missed |
UTSA: last 5 games
| W31-24 | Covered | |
| W16-14 | Missed | |
| W59-45 | Missed | |
| L6-30 | Covered | |
| W31-26 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekNAVYUTSA
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UTSA −6.5 | 54.5 | NAVY +180 · UTSA −218 |
| BEAVER fair line | UTSA −16.1 | 53.4 | NAVY +540 · UTSA −540 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| NAVY | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 7-1 |
| 1-4 | Conference | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-4 | Away | 3-1 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 5-3 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 29.7 / 29.1 | Points for / against | 33.5 / 26.0 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +7.5 |
| -4.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.8 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.1 |