College football scores › Week 7 › New Mexico at Hawai'i
BEAVER HAW +14.5, wonBEAVER Over 44.5, lostBEAVER had UNM 81% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNM–HAW) | 32–18 | 36–9 | – | 21–10 | |
| Spread | UNM −13.7 | UNM −26.6 | UNM −14.5 | UNM by 11 | HAW +14.5 ✓ |
| Total | 49.8 | 45.1 | 44.5 | 31 | Over 44.5 ✗ |
| HAW win chance | 19% | – | +490 | Lost |
UNM by 14+
49%
UNM by 1–13
31%
HAW by 1–13
15%
HAW by 14+
4%
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Hawai'i (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.3 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened UNM −15.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.002 #63Offense EPA / play−0.138 #118
−0.062 #32Defense EPA / play allowed+0.201 #133
−1.4% #82Offense success rate−4.8% #113
−3.1% #29Defense success rate allowed+7.6% #133
+0.104 #39Rushing EPA / play−0.121 #124
−0.143 #107Passing EPA / play−0.150 #110
+0.007 #60Rush defense EPA allowed+0.210 #136
−0.024 #44Pass defense EPA allowed+0.131 #98
+4.8 #30Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−11.6 #129
−2.9 #37Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.8 #107
Situational
−2.5% #78Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.2% #121
−1.6% #52Passing-down success allowed+4.1% #109
+0.66 #28Points per drive−1.41 #130
−0.11 #53Points per drive allowed+0.56 #101
Trenches
+0.21 #50Line yards per rush+0.07 #78
−0.43 #13Line yards per rush allowed+0.42 #126
−6.2% #13Runs stuffed at the line−0.8% #87
+2.0% #40Opponent runs stuffed−4.6% #127
−2.4% #46Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.6% #117
+3.9% #8Havoc created−3.2% #124
Big plays
+0.185 #10Rushing explosiveness−0.125 #121
+0.290 #14Passing explosiveness−0.021 #116
−0.29 #85Open-field yards per rush−0.39 #100
+0.111 #108Pass explosiveness allowed−0.104 #25
Style and schedule
61% #25Run rate40% #138
−17.4 #130Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.4 #99
New Mexico: last 5 games
| W61-7 | Covered | |
| W42-18 | Covered | |
| L6-14 | Covered | |
| W70-7 | Covered | |
| W38-7 | Covered |
Hawai'i: last 5 games
| L12-30 | Covered | |
| L16-20 | Missed | |
| L10-27 | Missed | |
| W29-19 | Covered | |
| L6-21 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUNMHAW
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UNM −14.5 | 44.5 | UNM −675 · HAW +490 |
| BEAVER fair line | UNM −13.7 | 49.8 | UNM −418 · HAW +418 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UNM | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-6 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 1-4 |
| 4-0 | Home | 1-3 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-3 |
| 6-1 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 2-6 |
| 37.0 / 11.3 | Points for / against | 20.8 / 24.5 |
| +25.7 | Avg margin | -3.8 |
| +13.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.4 |
| 52.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.6 |