College football scores › Week 7 › Toledo at Eastern Michigan
BEAVER TOL −6.5, wonBEAVER Under 52.5, wonBEAVER had TOL 68% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TOL–EMU) | 29–22 | 33–22 | – | 34–14 | |
| Spread | TOL −7.5 | TOL −11.8 | TOL −6.5 | TOL by 20 | TOL −6.5 ✓ |
| Total | 51.5 | 54.9 | 52.5 | 48 | Under 52.5 ✓ |
| EMU win chance | 32% | – | +235 | Lost |
TOL by 14+
34%
TOL by 1–13
34%
EMU by 1–13
23%
EMU by 14+
9%
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Toledo (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.024 #79Offense EPA / play−0.120 #113
+0.039 #74Defense EPA / play allowed+0.148 #115
−2.9% #97Offense success rate−4.3% #110
−1.2% #44Defense success rate allowed+4.9% #113
+0.004 #81Rushing EPA / play−0.040 #100
−0.047 #74Passing EPA / play−0.132 #104
+0.021 #68Rush defense EPA allowed+0.079 #99
+0.164 #107Pass defense EPA allowed+0.195 #114
−0.1 #64Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.4 #116
+5.3 #100Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+7.0 #116
Situational
−7.4% #115Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.1% #73
−2.0% #49Passing-down success allowed+6.0% #120
+0.07 #62Points per drive−1.03 #109
+0.44 #96Points per drive allowed+0.94 #115
Trenches
+0.13 #69Line yards per rush−0.23 #117
−0.08 #52Line yards per rush allowed+0.12 #89
−4.6% #31Runs stuffed at the line+1.5% #111
+1.5% #48Opponent runs stuffed−0.0% #71
−0.5% #93Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.5% #113
−3.1% #123Havoc created−1.2% #88
Big plays
+0.079 #39Rushing explosiveness+0.051 #51
+0.239 #27Passing explosiveness−0.091 #131
−0.23 #77Open-field yards per rush−0.52 #118
+0.034 #76Pass explosiveness allowed+0.111 #109
Style and schedule
55% #86Run rate50% #125
−16.0 #125Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−16.1 #126
Toledo: last 5 games
| L8-23 | Missed | |
| W39-24 | Missed | |
| W41-16 | Covered | |
| W49-48 | Missed | |
| W63-10 | Covered |
Eastern Michigan: last 5 games
| W25-23 | Missed | |
| W38-14 | Covered | |
| W29-3 | Covered | |
| L10-54 | Missed | |
| L7-35 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekTOLEMU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TOL −6.5 | 52.5 | TOL −290 · EMU +235 |
| BEAVER fair line | TOL −7.5 | 51.5 | TOL −213 · EMU +213 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| TOL | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 4-5 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-3 |
| 4-3-1 | Against the spread | 4-5 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 2-7 |
| 37.4 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 21.3 / 25.7 |
| +12.0 | Avg margin | -4.3 |
| +1.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.5 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.9 |