College football scores › Week 8 › Pittsburgh at Miami
BEAVER MIA −20.5, wonBEAVER Over 48.5, wonBEAVER had MIA 90% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (PITT–MIA) | 18–38 | 17–36 | – | 23–52 | |
| Spread | MIA −20.7 | MIA −19.3 | MIA −20.5 | MIA by 29 | MIA −20.5 ✓ |
| Total | 55.8 | 53.0 | 48.5 | 75 | Over 48.5 ✓ |
| MIA win chance | 90% | – | −1800 | Won |
PITT by 14+
2%
PITT by 1–13
8%
MIA by 1–13
24%
MIA by 14+
66%
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Miami (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.3 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened MIA −23.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.002 #69Offense EPA / play+0.252 #2
−0.055 #34Defense EPA / play allowed−0.124 #14
−0.4% #72Offense success rate+10.0% #6
−5.3% #16Defense success rate allowed−4.6% #22
+0.049 #61Rushing EPA / play+0.116 #33
−0.023 #66Passing EPA / play+0.395 #1
−0.187 #5Rush defense EPA allowed−0.224 #2
+0.062 #79Pass defense EPA allowed−0.045 #36
+2.7 #45Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+15.5 #1
−2.8 #39Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−8.2 #13
Situational
−1.9% #70Passing-down success (3rd & long)+5.7% #18
−5.1% #16Passing-down success allowed−3.1% #37
+0.76 #26Points per drive+2.53 #2
−0.41 #39Points per drive allowed−0.86 #17
Trenches
+0.41 #22Line yards per rush+0.58 #5
−0.93 #3Line yards per rush allowed−0.45 #11
−3.8% #40Runs stuffed at the line−8.3% #2
+6.7% #7Opponent runs stuffed+2.6% #37
−3.5% #26Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−6.9% #5
+1.2% #34Havoc created−0.7% #75
Big plays
−0.067 #102Rushing explosiveness−0.011 #85
+0.225 #28Passing explosiveness+0.159 #50
−0.23 #84Open-field yards per rush+0.06 #46
+0.174 #129Pass explosiveness allowed−0.021 #50
Style and schedule
53% #98Run rate54% #92
−8.9 #87Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.8 #86
Pittsburgh: last 5 games
| L21-27 | Missed | |
| L17-21 | Missed | |
| W35-33 | Covered | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| W27-13 | Covered |
Miami: last 5 games
| W43-35 | Missed | |
| W41-13 | Covered | |
| W52-3 | Covered | |
| W33-20 | Missed | |
| W77-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekPITTMIA
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MIA −20.5 | 48.5 | PITT +1000 · MIA −1800 |
| BEAVER fair line | MIA −20.7 | 55.8 | PITT +918 · MIA −918 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| PITT | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 7-0 |
| 2-3 | Conference | 5-0 |
| 4-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 3-0 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 31.6 / 20.9 | Points for / against | 49.0 / 15.3 |
| +10.8 | Avg margin | +33.7 |
| +1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.0 |
| 58.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.7 |