College football scores › Week 8 › USC at Wisconsin
BEAVER WIS +3, wonBEAVER Over 49.5, lostBEAVER had USC 52% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USC–WIS) | 27–26 | 23–29 | – | 7–24 | |
| Spread | USC −1.0 | WIS −5.6 | USC −3 | WIS by 17 | WIS +3 ✓ |
| Total | 53.3 | 52.2 | 49.5 | 31 | Over 49.5 ✗ |
| WIS win chance | 48% | – | +110 | Won |
USC by 14+
21%
USC by 1–13
32%
WIS by 1–13
30%
WIS by 14+
17%
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for Wisconsin (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened USC −1.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.222 #5Offense EPA / play+0.019 #60
+0.024 #69Defense EPA / play allowed−0.106 #18
+9.1% #7Offense success rate−2.0% #84
−1.3% #44Defense success rate allowed−5.1% #18
+0.074 #44Rushing EPA / play+0.161 #19
+0.370 #3Passing EPA / play−0.052 #79
−0.006 #56Rush defense EPA allowed−0.019 #50
+0.117 #96Pass defense EPA allowed−0.161 #14
+9.8 #11Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+0.3 #62
−1.3 #52Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−8.3 #12
Situational
+9.3% #5Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.9% #99
−0.1% #65Passing-down success allowed−8.6% #4
+1.54 #8Points per drive+0.21 #56
−0.13 #51Points per drive allowed−0.94 #12
Trenches
+0.37 #27Line yards per rush+0.28 #41
−0.04 #59Line yards per rush allowed−0.13 #51
−3.7% #42Runs stuffed at the line−6.7% #11
−1.2% #87Opponent runs stuffed−3.3% #112
−6.9% #3Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.0% #54
−2.9% #116Havoc created+0.0% #55
Big plays
−0.098 #115Rushing explosiveness+0.280 #2
+0.201 #36Passing explosiveness+0.217 #32
−0.51 #117Open-field yards per rush−0.07 #63
+0.209 #132Pass explosiveness allowed−0.175 #10
Style and schedule
55% #78Run rate58% #40
+0.2 #23Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.3 #25
USC: last 5 games
| W31-23 | Covered | |
| W25-21 | Missed | |
| L27-41 | Missed | |
| W42-35 | Missed | |
| W49-30 | Missed |
Wisconsin: last 5 games
| L7-17 | Missed | |
| W31-3 | Covered | |
| W24-20 | Covered | |
| W54-10 | Covered | |
| W36-9 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUSCWIS
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | USC −3 | 49.5 | USC −130 · WIS +110 |
| BEAVER fair line | USC −1 | 53.3 | USC −110 · WIS +110 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| USC | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 4-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-6 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 32.8 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 15.3 |
| +7.8 | Avg margin | +11.7 |
| -6.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.7 |
| 65.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.0 |