College football scores › Week 8 › Liberty at Kennesaw State
BEAVER LIB −9.5, wonBEAVER Under 50.5, wonBEAVER had LIB 76% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (LIB–KENN) | 29–18 | 33–12 | – | 34–6 | |
| Spread | LIB −11.2 | LIB −21.3 | LIB −9.5 | LIB by 28 | LIB −9.5 ✓ |
| Total | 47.6 | 45.3 | 50.5 | 40 | Under 50.5 ✓ |
| KENN win chance | 24% | – | +300 | Lost |
LIB by 14+
43%
LIB by 1–13
33%
KENN by 1–13
18%
KENN by 14+
5%
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Liberty (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened LIB −8.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.023 #78Offense EPA / play−0.081 #99
+0.030 #72Defense EPA / play allowed+0.101 #101
+3.0% #42Offense success rate−2.7% #93
−0.7% #48Defense success rate allowed+3.6% #98
+0.024 #73Rushing EPA / play−0.006 #88
−0.008 #61Passing EPA / play−0.150 #106
+0.061 #88Rush defense EPA allowed−0.017 #53
+0.022 #59Pass defense EPA allowed+0.198 #115
−2.8 #79Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.0 #118
−1.5 #49Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+2.5 #79
Situational
−1.7% #67Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.2% #101
−0.3% #62Passing-down success allowed+6.4% #122
−0.32 #84Points per drive−1.04 #110
+0.10 #65Points per drive allowed+0.39 #87
Trenches
+0.33 #31Line yards per rush+0.01 #84
+0.21 #103Line yards per rush allowed+0.04 #70
−5.6% #16Runs stuffed at the line+3.2% #131
+0.3% #63Opponent runs stuffed+1.7% #45
−2.0% #56Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.0% #52
−0.5% #67Havoc created−3.0% #118
Big plays
−0.160 #129Rushing explosiveness+0.046 #56
+0.269 #15Passing explosiveness−0.133 #136
−0.00 #51Open-field yards per rush−0.55 #122
+0.145 #123Pass explosiveness allowed−0.155 #13
Style and schedule
66% #9Run rate52% #112
−15.0 #123Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.3 #95
Liberty: last 5 games
| W35-3 | Covered | |
| W30-14 | Covered | |
| W34-17 | Covered | |
| W51-15 | Covered | |
| W24-23 | Missed |
Kennesaw State: last 5 games
| L21-24 | Missed | |
| L26-27 | Covered | |
| L14-17 | Covered | |
| L9-42 | Covered | |
| L17-31 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekLIBKENN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | LIB −9.5 | 50.5 | LIB −380 · KENN +300 |
| BEAVER fair line | LIB −11.2 | 47.6 | LIB −319 · KENN +319 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| LIB | KENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 1-6 |
| 3-0 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 31.6 / 14.0 | Points for / against | 20.0 / 25.0 |
| +17.6 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| +7.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.0 |
| 58.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.9 |