College football scores › Week 6 › Air Force at Northern Illinois
BEAVER NIU +7, lostBEAVER Over 47.5, lostBEAVER had AF 58% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (AF–NIU) | 27–24 | 34–17 | – | 28–7 | |
| Spread | AF −3.1 | AF −17.1 | AF −7 | AF by 21 | NIU +7 ✗ |
| Total | 50.3 | 51.6 | 47.5 | 35 | Over 47.5 ✗ |
| NIU win chance | 42% | – | +240 | Lost |
AF by 14+
25%
AF by 1–13
33%
NIU by 1–13
28%
NIU by 14+
14%
Spread: 3.9 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened AF −7.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.053 #84Offense EPA / play−0.191 #129
+0.107 #104Defense EPA / play allowed+0.158 #123
−1.5% #86Offense success rate−4.4% #110
+1.3% #78Defense success rate allowed+3.8% #101
+0.109 #35Rushing EPA / play−0.062 #112
−0.268 #130Passing EPA / play−0.248 #126
+0.102 #107Rush defense EPA allowed+0.114 #115
+0.165 #111Pass defense EPA allowed+0.145 #100
−6.4 #99Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−10.0 #124
+4.9 #98Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+7.3 #119
Situational
−10.3% #132Passing-down success (3rd & long)−11.6% #135
−1.5% #53Passing-down success allowed+5.2% #115
−0.81 #101Points per drive−1.05 #112
+0.43 #94Points per drive allowed+0.93 #114
Trenches
+0.27 #44Line yards per rush−0.16 #113
+0.21 #107Line yards per rush allowed−0.02 #65
−6.7% #10Runs stuffed at the line+0.8% #107
−1.7% #96Opponent runs stuffed+0.1% #70
−5.9% #6Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.3% #111
−3.7% #127Havoc created−1.7% #92
Big plays
+0.004 #75Rushing explosiveness−0.012 #81
+0.271 #23Passing explosiveness−0.101 #131
−0.84 #136Open-field yards per rush−0.34 #93
+0.099 #104Pass explosiveness allowed−0.009 #63
Style and schedule
85% #1Run rate54% #83
−17.0 #126Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+0.7 #17
Air Force: last 4 games
| W14-9 | Covered | |
| W36-33 | Missed | |
| L32-38 | Missed | |
| W34-0 | Covered |
Northern Illinois: last 4 games
| L14-35 | Missed | |
| L17-42 | Covered | |
| L24-28 | Missed | |
| L0-40 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekAFNIU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | AF −7 | 47.5 | AF −298 · NIU +240 |
| BEAVER fair line | AF −3.1 | 50.3 | AF −137 · NIU +137 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| AF | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 0-7 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-4 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 1-6 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 28.4 / 20.9 | Points for / against | 15.1 / 38.6 |
| +7.6 | Avg margin | -23.4 |
| +0.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -10.0 |
| 71.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.6 |