College football scores › Week 6 › Central Michigan at Ohio
BEAVER OHIO −2.5, wonBEAVER Over 45.5, lostBEAVER had OHIO 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CMU–OHIO) | 22–29 | 25–26 | – | 14–31 | |
| Spread | OHIO −6.2 | OHIO −0.9 | OHIO −2.5 | OHIO by 17 | OHIO −2.5 ✓ |
| Total | 50.9 | 51.9 | 45.5 | 45 | Over 45.5 ✗ |
| OHIO win chance | 65% | – | −135 | Won |
CMU by 14+
10%
CMU by 1–13
25%
OHIO by 1–13
34%
OHIO by 14+
31%
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for Ohio (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 5.4 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened OHIO −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.098 #107Offense EPA / play−0.033 #79
+0.144 #121Defense EPA / play allowed+0.138 #118
−5.7% #122Offense success rate−0.9% #77
+5.6% #119Defense success rate allowed+4.1% #104
+0.112 #34Rushing EPA / play+0.065 #57
−0.371 #138Passing EPA / play−0.137 #99
+0.145 #122Rush defense EPA allowed+0.102 #108
+0.062 #77Pass defense EPA allowed+0.220 #123
−10.0 #126Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.8 #96
+3.9 #90Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.5 #102
Situational
−7.5% #116Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.8% #91
+7.2% #126Passing-down success allowed+9.3% #134
−1.10 #115Points per drive−0.84 #103
+1.02 #118Points per drive allowed+0.65 #104
Trenches
+0.23 #50Line yards per rush+0.35 #26
+0.48 #132Line yards per rush allowed−0.04 #60
−3.9% #41Runs stuffed at the line−6.8% #8
−2.8% #112Opponent runs stuffed+0.4% #62
−2.8% #38Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.9% #59
−1.2% #81Havoc created+0.1% #57
Big plays
+0.197 #6Rushing explosiveness−0.039 #94
−0.199 #138Passing explosiveness+0.070 #87
−0.14 #71Open-field yards per rush−0.63 #127
−0.144 #16Pass explosiveness allowed+0.013 #73
Style and schedule
72% #6Run rate64% #13
−6.8 #59Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−14.5 #116
Central Michigan: last 5 games
| W41-17 | Covered | |
| L3-52 | Missed | |
| W24-10 | Covered | |
| W13-10 | Missed | |
| L7-38 | Missed |
Ohio: last 5 games
| W13-10 | Missed | |
| W35-7 | Missed | |
| L36-41 | Covered | |
| W29-27 | Covered | |
| L21-49 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCMUOHIO
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | OHIO −2.5 | 45.5 | CMU +114 · OHIO −135 |
| BEAVER fair line | OHIO −6.2 | 50.9 | CMU +187 · OHIO −187 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CMU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 6-2 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 4-0 |
| 3-2 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 17.9 / 25.9 | Points for / against | 29.6 / 21.9 |
| -8.0 | Avg margin | +7.8 |
| -2.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.9 |
| 49.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.4 |