BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › USC at Penn State
USC6-2away
31
FinalBeaver Stadium, 58°, wind 6 mph
Penn State3-4home
23
BEAVER USC +2.5, wonBEAVER Under 54.5, wonBEAVER had USC 57% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (USC–PSU)28–2526–29–31–23
SpreadUSC −2.7PSU −3.7PSU −2.5USC by 8USC +2.5 ✓
Total53.354.954.554Under 54.5 ✓
PSU win chance43%–−105Lost
USC by 14+
24%
USC by 1–13
33%
PSU by 1–13
28%
PSU by 14+
15%

Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for USC (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened PSU −1.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.193 #7Offense EPA / play+0.036 #50
+0.037 #72Defense EPA / play allowed−0.083 #23
+8.8% #8Offense success rate−1.1% #80
−0.8% #57Defense success rate allowed−2.7% #31
+0.080 #50Rushing EPA / play−0.009 #86
+0.316 #4Passing EPA / play+0.095 #35
+0.003 #54Rush defense EPA allowed+0.069 #91
+0.133 #95Pass defense EPA allowed−0.309 #1
+8.7 #14Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+2.5 #45
−0.9 #54Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−6.9 #18
Situational
+10.3% #3Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.8% #49
+1.8% #88Passing-down success allowed−4.7% #18
+1.40 #11Points per drive+0.54 #34
−0.12 #52Points per drive allowed−0.68 #24
Trenches
+0.30 #35Line yards per rush−0.24 #120
−0.09 #52Line yards per rush allowed−0.23 #30
−3.3% #56Runs stuffed at the line−2.4% #63
−1.7% #97Opponent runs stuffed+4.5% #16
−6.5% #3Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.5% #66
−2.8% #113Havoc created+1.8% #26
Big plays
−0.013 #83Rushing explosiveness−0.041 #97
+0.142 #50Passing explosiveness+0.201 #35
−0.44 #109Open-field yards per rush−0.40 #103
+0.199 #130Pass explosiveness allowed−0.460 #1
Style and schedule
56% #67Run rate56% #70
−1.1 #23Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−4.9 #42

USC: last 5 games

W25-21
vsWashington
Missed
L27-41
vsOregon
Missed
W42-35
atRutgers
Missed
W49-30
vsLouisiana
Missed
W39-0
vsFresno State
Covered

Penn State: last 5 games

L13-34
atNorthwestern
Missed
L20-24
vsWisconsin
Missed
W55-13
vsBuffalo
Covered
W27-9
atTemple
Missed
W45-0
vsMarshall
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.05+0.12+0.20+0.27Entering week123456USC · 1: +0.24USC · 2: +0.25USC · 3: +0.19USC · 4: +0.17USC · 5: +0.16USC · 6: +0.16Penn State · 1: +0.09Penn State · 2: +0.17Penn State · 3: +0.15Penn State · 4: +0.21Penn State · 5: +0.11Penn State · 6: +0.12
● USC● Penn State