College football scores › Week 7 › Florida State at Miami
BEAVER FSU +20.5, wonBEAVER Under 56.5, lostBEAVER had MIA 89% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FSU–MIA) | 18–38 | 16–40 | – | 35–43 | |
| Spread | MIA −20.0 | MIA −24.3 | MIA −20.5 | MIA by 8 | FSU +20.5 ✓ |
| Total | 56.4 | 56.5 | 56.5 | 78 | Under 56.5 ✗ |
| MIA win chance | 89% | – | −1600 | Won |
FSU by 14+
2%
FSU by 1–13
9%
MIA by 1–13
25%
MIA by 14+
65%
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for Florida State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened MIA −16.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.123 #20Offense EPA / play+0.296 #1
+0.109 #105Defense EPA / play allowed−0.114 #16
+4.4% #26Offense success rate+11.8% #2
+1.0% #77Defense success rate allowed−3.5% #28
+0.252 #3Rushing EPA / play+0.164 #16
+0.032 #49Passing EPA / play+0.419 #1
+0.056 #83Rush defense EPA allowed−0.134 #15
+0.114 #89Pass defense EPA allowed−0.121 #19
+3.0 #46Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+15.0 #4
−1.5 #51Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−10.4 #7
Situational
+7.0% #8Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.6% #13
−0.8% #62Passing-down success allowed−3.4% #32
+0.38 #45Points per drive+2.79 #2
−0.24 #43Points per drive allowed−0.84 #16
Trenches
+0.62 #2Line yards per rush+0.60 #5
+0.13 #93Line yards per rush allowed−0.42 #15
−6.1% #17Runs stuffed at the line−7.7% #3
−1.1% #84Opponent runs stuffed+4.0% #23
−2.1% #52Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−6.8% #4
−1.3% #89Havoc created+0.7% #45
Big plays
+0.187 #9Rushing explosiveness−0.035 #92
+0.321 #9Passing explosiveness+0.075 #82
+0.24 #26Open-field yards per rush+0.07 #46
−0.047 #47Pass explosiveness allowed−0.160 #17
Style and schedule
60% #27Run rate53% #96
−1.0 #29Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.2 #105
Florida State: last 5 games
| L20-44 | Missed | |
| W38-7 | Covered | |
| W34-7 | Missed | |
| L36-50 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Push |
Miami: last 5 games
| W41-13 | Covered | |
| W52-3 | Covered | |
| W33-20 | Missed | |
| W77-7 | Covered | |
| W45-6 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekFSUMIA
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MIA −20.5 | 56.5 | FSU +900 · MIA −1600 |
| BEAVER fair line | MIA −20 | 56.4 | FSU +834 · MIA −834 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| FSU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 7-0 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 5-0 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 3-0 |
| 3-3-1 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 31.6 / 27.9 | Points for / against | 49.0 / 15.3 |
| +3.7 | Avg margin | +33.7 |
| -0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.0 |
| 62.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.7 |