College football scores › Week 8 › UTSA at Tulane
BEAVER UTSA −3, wonBEAVER Under 51.5, lostBEAVER had UTSA 62% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTSA–TULN) | 28–23 | 27–24 | – | 42–19 | |
| Spread | UTSA −4.8 | UTSA −2.7 | UTSA −3 | UTSA by 23 | UTSA −3 ✓ |
| Total | 50.7 | 50.7 | 51.5 | 61 | Under 51.5 ✗ |
| TULN win chance | 38% | – | +124 | Lost |
UTSA by 14+
28%
UTSA by 1–13
34%
TULN by 1–13
26%
TULN by 14+
12%
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for UTSA (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened UTSA −4.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.036 #45Offense EPA / play−0.112 #107
+0.029 #71Defense EPA / play allowed−0.001 #50
+1.4% #61Offense success rate−8.8% #135
+0.3% #67Defense success rate allowed+0.4% #69
+0.131 #27Rushing EPA / play−0.032 #98
−0.115 #95Passing EPA / play−0.194 #119
+0.066 #91Rush defense EPA allowed−0.028 #44
+0.108 #92Pass defense EPA allowed−0.009 #50
+1.7 #52Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.9 #109
+3.9 #88Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.9 #34
Situational
−6.1% #110Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.5% #130
+0.3% #70Passing-down success allowed+1.7% #91
−0.08 #73Points per drive−1.02 #109
+0.30 #80Points per drive allowed−0.59 #29
Trenches
+0.08 #72Line yards per rush−0.30 #127
+0.10 #82Line yards per rush allowed+0.11 #84
−2.1% #69Runs stuffed at the line+1.2% #112
−2.1% #104Opponent runs stuffed−0.5% #76
−3.5% #27Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+2.2% #130
−3.4% #127Havoc created+0.2% #49
Big plays
+0.001 #78Rushing explosiveness+0.156 #11
−0.022 #113Passing explosiveness+0.217 #33
+0.16 #35Open-field yards per rush+0.32 #17
+0.251 #135Pass explosiveness allowed+0.085 #103
Style and schedule
55% #75Run rate56% #53
−7.2 #75Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−2.7 #44
UTSA: last 5 games
| W38-34 | Missed | |
| W31-24 | Covered | |
| W16-14 | Missed | |
| W59-45 | Missed | |
| L6-30 | Covered |
Tulane: last 5 games
| W31-17 | Covered | |
| L17-20 | Covered | |
| W24-21 | Missed | |
| L20-31 | Covered | |
| W28-24 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUTSATULN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UTSA −3 | 51.5 | UTSA −148 · TULN +124 |
| BEAVER fair line | UTSA −4.8 | 50.7 | UTSA −163 · TULN +163 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UTSA | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 4-0 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-3 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 33.5 / 26.0 | Points for / against | 20.3 / 24.6 |
| +7.5 | Avg margin | -4.3 |
| +2.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.7 |
| 65.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.9 |