College football scores › Week 6 › Old Dominion at App State
BEAVER ODU +10, wonBEAVER Under 46.5, wonBEAVER had APP 69% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ODU–APP) | 17–25 | 21–36 | – | 10–3 | |
| Spread | APP −7.6 | APP −15.6 | APP −10 | ODU by 7 | ODU +10 ✓ |
| Total | 42.1 | 56.6 | 46.5 | 13 | Under 46.5 ✓ |
| APP win chance | 69% | – | −360 | Lost |
ODU by 14+
8%
ODU by 1–13
23%
APP by 1–13
35%
APP by 14+
34%
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Old Dominion (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts below Vegas (49% historically). Opened APP −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.226 #134Offense EPA / play−0.028 #77
−0.026 #47Defense EPA / play allowed+0.082 #92
−10.1% #138Offense success rate−3.4% #97
−2.0% #40Defense success rate allowed+4.4% #109
−0.186 #135Rushing EPA / play−0.122 #123
−0.332 #136Passing EPA / play+0.123 #29
−0.080 #26Rush defense EPA allowed+0.147 #125
+0.060 #75Pass defense EPA allowed+0.002 #55
−10.0 #125Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.3 #77
+5.6 #105Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.1 #100
Situational
−4.9% #100Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.8% #42
−0.8% #58Passing-down success allowed−3.6% #28
−1.41 #130Points per drive−0.12 #71
+0.37 #93Points per drive allowed+0.33 #90
Trenches
−1.00 #138Line yards per rush−0.48 #133
−0.08 #53Line yards per rush allowed+0.17 #94
+8.9% #138Runs stuffed at the line+2.4% #122
+0.5% #61Opponent runs stuffed−0.9% #85
+4.9% #138Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.6% #46
−0.0% #59Havoc created−0.6% #69
Big plays
+0.129 #24Rushing explosiveness−0.033 #91
+0.312 #14Passing explosiveness+0.127 #59
+0.05 #44Open-field yards per rush−0.72 #132
+0.074 #96Pass explosiveness allowed−0.090 #32
Style and schedule
60% #28Run rate52% #109
−7.1 #62Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−17.8 #130
Old Dominion: last 5 games
| L10-42 | Missed | |
| L20-46 | Missed | |
| L17-20 | Missed | |
| L21-44 | Missed | |
| W31-10 | Missed |
App State: last 4 games
| L31-41 | Covered | |
| W26-21 | Missed | |
| W27-24 | Covered | |
| W55-3 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekODUAPP
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | APP −10 | 46.5 | ODU +285 · APP −360 |
| BEAVER fair line | APP −7.6 | 42.1 | ODU +220 · APP −220 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ODU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 1-4 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-3 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 1-7 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 15.5 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 30.1 / 23.1 |
| -11.2 | Avg margin | +7.0 |
| -10.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.7 |
| 53.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.1 |