College football scores › Week 8 › Michigan State at UCLA
BEAVER UCLA −15.5, wonBEAVER Over 44.5, lostBEAVER had UCLA 90% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MSU–UCLA) | 15–35 | 10–39 | – | 10–28 | |
| Spread | UCLA −20.0 | UCLA −29.6 | UCLA −15.5 | UCLA by 18 | UCLA −15.5 ✓ |
| Total | 50.6 | 48.8 | 44.5 | 38 | Over 44.5 ✗ |
| UCLA win chance | 90% | – | −800 | Won |
MSU by 14+
2%
MSU by 1–13
9%
UCLA by 1–13
25%
UCLA by 14+
65%
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for UCLA (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 6.1 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened UCLA −13.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.078 #97Offense EPA / play+0.080 #32
+0.026 #70Defense EPA / play allowed−0.153 #10
+2.2% #46Offense success rate+4.0% #29
−0.6% #50Defense success rate allowed−3.9% #25
−0.022 #94Rushing EPA / play+0.180 #14
−0.115 #94Passing EPA / play−0.048 #77
−0.034 #43Rush defense EPA allowed−0.159 #12
+0.058 #76Pass defense EPA allowed−0.189 #9
−3.0 #82Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.4 #27
−2.1 #45Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−7.9 #16
Situational
+1.6% #36Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.7% #43
+0.3% #71Passing-down success allowed−8.9% #3
−0.24 #79Points per drive+0.46 #40
−0.36 #40Points per drive allowed−0.98 #10
Trenches
+0.06 #76Line yards per rush+0.50 #10
−0.15 #46Line yards per rush allowed−0.27 #28
−2.5% #62Runs stuffed at the line−3.6% #45
+4.6% #20Opponent runs stuffed+3.9% #25
−0.7% #86Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.9% #58
−0.9% #82Havoc created+3.5% #12
Big plays
−0.114 #122Rushing explosiveness+0.039 #60
−0.040 #119Passing explosiveness+0.071 #91
−0.47 #110Open-field yards per rush+0.55 #5
+0.114 #116Pass explosiveness allowed+0.082 #100
Style and schedule
57% #48Run rate60% #27
+5.8 #7Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+0.2 #24
Michigan State: last 5 games
| L21-24 | Covered | |
| L37-38 | Covered | |
| L3-31 | Missed | |
| L13-31 | Missed | |
| L10-27 | Covered |
UCLA: last 5 games
| W17-7 | Covered | |
| W17-15 | Covered | |
| W54-3 | Covered | |
| W52-38 | Covered | |
| W28-10 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMSUUCLA
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UCLA −15.5 | 44.5 | MSU +550 · UCLA −800 |
| BEAVER fair line | UCLA −20 | 50.6 | MSU +866 · UCLA −866 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MSU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 7-0 |
| 0-5 | Conference | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 3-0 |
| 4-3-1 | Against the spread | 7-0 |
| 2-6 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 19.9 / 25.8 | Points for / against | 34.4 / 15.3 |
| -5.9 | Avg margin | +19.1 |
| -0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +13.4 |
| 61.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 66.3 |