College football scores › Week 7 › Penn State at Michigan
BEAVER MICH −6.5, lostBEAVER Over 42.5, lostBEAVER had MICH 77% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (PSU–MICH) | 16–28 | 21–22 | – | 18–21 | |
| Spread | MICH −11.6 | MICH −0.6 | MICH −6.5 | MICH by 3 | MICH −6.5 ✗ |
| Total | 44.3 | 42.9 | 42.5 | 39 | Over 42.5 ✗ |
| MICH win chance | 77% | – | −230 | Won |
PSU by 14+
5%
PSU by 1–13
18%
MICH by 1–13
33%
MICH by 14+
44%
Spread: 5.1 pts better than Vegas for Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.014 #54Offense EPA / play+0.009 #59
−0.046 #37Defense EPA / play allowed−0.111 #18
−1.6% #83Offense success rate+1.7% #51
−2.2% #38Defense success rate allowed−5.6% #14
−0.041 #101Rushing EPA / play+0.078 #51
+0.087 #35Passing EPA / play−0.049 #76
+0.068 #91Rush defense EPA allowed−0.074 #29
−0.230 #5Pass defense EPA allowed−0.219 #8
+1.8 #53Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.0 #70
−6.0 #23Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.9 #25
Situational
−1.2% #63Passing-down success (3rd & long)+3.4% #28
−4.4% #24Passing-down success allowed−4.4% #22
+0.46 #39Points per drive−0.12 #74
−0.63 #26Points per drive allowed−0.84 #15
Trenches
−0.21 #116Line yards per rush+0.39 #22
−0.17 #36Line yards per rush allowed−0.13 #45
−2.1% #67Runs stuffed at the line−7.0% #7
+3.9% #25Opponent runs stuffed+0.9% #58
−1.1% #77Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.1% #75
+1.2% #34Havoc created+0.7% #43
Big plays
−0.100 #115Rushing explosiveness+0.042 #56
+0.204 #36Passing explosiveness+0.061 #93
−0.49 #115Open-field yards per rush−0.34 #98
−0.389 #1Pass explosiveness allowed+0.109 #106
Style and schedule
55% #83Run rate59% #35
−2.5 #37Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−1.0 #28
Penn State: last 5 games
| L23-31 | Missed | |
| L13-34 | Missed | |
| L20-24 | Missed | |
| W55-13 | Covered | |
| W27-9 | Missed |
Michigan: last 5 games
| L14-20 | Missed | |
| L19-20 | Missed | |
| W52-17 | Covered | |
| W17-10 | Covered | |
| W13-12 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekPSUMICH
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MICH −6.5 | 42.5 | PSU +190 · MICH −230 |
| BEAVER fair line | MICH −11.6 | 44.3 | PSU +336 · MICH −336 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| PSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 0-4 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 2-2 | Home | 4-2 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 28.7 / 18.9 | Points for / against | 20.3 / 15.7 |
| +9.9 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| -3.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.9 |
| 58.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |