College football scores › Week 6 › Charlotte at North Texas
BEAVER CLT +29.5, lostBEAVER Over 58.5, wonBEAVER had UNT 96% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CLT–UNT) | 18–47 | 16–46 | – | 10–50 | |
| Spread | UNT −28.7 | UNT −29.4 | UNT −29.5 | UNT by 40 | CLT +29.5 ✗ |
| Total | 64.5 | 62.2 | 58.5 | 60 | Over 58.5 ✓ |
| UNT win chance | 96% | – | −4500 | Won |
CLT by 14+
0%
CLT by 1–13
4%
UNT by 1–13
15%
UNT by 14+
81%
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Charlotte (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 6.0 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened UNT −28.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.264 #138Offense EPA / play+0.161 #13
+0.123 #109Defense EPA / play allowed+0.097 #101
−9.8% #137Offense success rate+4.6% #25
+8.8% #135Defense success rate allowed+6.0% #122
−0.267 #138Rushing EPA / play+0.120 #30
−0.235 #123Passing EPA / play+0.201 #12
+0.066 #90Rush defense EPA allowed−0.014 #49
+0.163 #110Pass defense EPA allowed+0.327 #135
−13.7 #134Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+9.0 #13
+14.1 #135Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.1 #122
Situational
−9.9% #130Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.2% #36
+11.0% #137Passing-down success allowed+4.0% #105
−1.51 #132Points per drive+0.59 #31
+1.52 #133Points per drive allowed+0.67 #105
Trenches
−0.62 #136Line yards per rush+0.18 #56
+0.19 #100Line yards per rush allowed−0.17 #42
+6.4% #135Runs stuffed at the line−3.4% #52
+2.2% #39Opponent runs stuffed−0.2% #73
+2.7% #134Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.7% #21
−3.0% #115Havoc created−1.0% #76
Big plays
−0.272 #136Rushing explosiveness+0.254 #2
−0.016 #116Passing explosiveness+0.143 #49
+0.09 #39Open-field yards per rush+0.23 #28
−0.168 #9Pass explosiveness allowed+0.058 #92
Style and schedule
51% #115Run rate53% #104
−7.8 #69Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.9 #54
Charlotte: last 5 games
| L8-59 | Missed | |
| L7-34 | Missed | |
| L21-26 | Covered | |
| L9-41 | Covered | |
| L41-43 | Missed |
North Texas: last 5 games
| W45-44 | Missed | |
| W63-14 | Covered | |
| L35-49 | Missed | |
| W44-6 | Covered | |
| L16-52 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCLTUNT
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UNT −29.5 | 58.5 | CLT +1700 · UNT −4500 |
| BEAVER fair line | UNT −28.7 | 64.5 | CLT +2394 · UNT −2394 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CLT | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-3 | Away | 2-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 19.1 / 40.6 | Points for / against | 43.1 / 30.6 |
| -21.4 | Avg margin | +12.6 |
| -5.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.8 |
| 51.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.0 |