BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Tennessee at South Carolina
TennesseeNo. 166-2away
24
FinalWilliams-Brice Stadium, 70°, wind 12 mph
South Carolina4-3home
27
BEAVER TENN +2.5, lostBEAVER Over 50.5, wonBEAVER had TENN 55% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (TENN–SC)28–2630–26–24–27
SpreadTENN −2.0TENN −4.0SC −2.5SC by 3TENN +2.5 ✗
Total54.755.650.551Over 50.5 ✓
SC win chance45%–−135Won
TENN by 14+
23%
TENN by 1–13
32%
SC by 1–13
29%
SC by 14+
16%

Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Tennessee (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.2 pts above Vegas (49% historically). Opened TENN −2.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.087 #28Offense EPA / play+0.082 #30
−0.199 #3Defense EPA / play allowed+0.007 #57
+4.3% #26Offense success rate+1.9% #49
−5.2% #17Defense success rate allowed−2.8% #32
+0.248 #1Rushing EPA / play+0.187 #12
−0.077 #86Passing EPA / play−0.017 #63
−0.110 #21Rush defense EPA allowed−0.104 #23
−0.236 #5Pass defense EPA allowed+0.102 #90
+8.9 #12Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+7.3 #19
−8.0 #14Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.5 #41
Situational
−4.2% #95Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.3% #83
−6.8% #7Passing-down success allowed+0.0% #67
+1.04 #19Points per drive+1.14 #15
−0.85 #20Points per drive allowed−0.58 #30
Trenches
+0.60 #4Line yards per rush+0.60 #3
−0.14 #47Line yards per rush allowed−0.52 #9
−6.9% #10Runs stuffed at the line−4.7% #23
+2.2% #40Opponent runs stuffed+5.0% #16
−2.1% #50Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.8% #36
+5.5% #1Havoc created−0.6% #72
Big plays
+0.108 #27Rushing explosiveness+0.114 #22
+0.042 #100Passing explosiveness+0.139 #56
+0.21 #28Open-field yards per rush+0.91 #3
−0.308 #2Pass explosiveness allowed+0.103 #112
Style and schedule
62% #18Run rate56% #64
+1.0 #20Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.4 #27

Tennessee: last 5 games

W26-10
vsAlabama
Covered
W24-17
atArkansas
Missed
W24-14
vsAuburn
Covered
L17-20
vsTexas
Covered
W42-9
vsKennesaw State
Missed

South Carolina: last 5 games

W38-19
atFlorida
Covered
L34-35
vsKentucky
Missed
L18-49
atAlabama
Missed
L34-41
vsMississippi State
Missed
W45-9
vsTowson
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.06+0.15+0.24+0.33Entering week12345678Tennessee · 1: +0.22Tennessee · 2: +0.23Tennessee · 3: +0.30Tennessee · 4: +0.27Tennessee · 5: +0.23Tennessee · 6: +0.23Tennessee · 7: +0.21Tennessee · 8: +0.29South Carolina · 1: +0.11South Carolina · 2: +0.16South Carolina · 3: +0.01South Carolina · 4: +0.01South Carolina · 5: +0.01South Carolina · 6: +0.01South Carolina · 7: +0.08South Carolina · 8: +0.08
● Tennessee● South Carolina