College football scores › Week 7 › Florida at Texas
BEAVER TEX −11.5, lostBEAVER Over 51.5, lostBEAVER had TEX 84% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FLA–TEX) | 18–34 | 26–35 | – | 27–24 | |
| Spread | TEX −16.0 | TEX −8.9 | TEX −11.5 | FLA by 3 | TEX −11.5 ✗ |
| Total | 52.2 | 61.3 | 51.5 | 51 | Over 51.5 ✗ |
| TEX win chance | 84% | – | −535 | Lost |
FLA by 14+
3%
FLA by 1–13
13%
TEX by 1–13
29%
TEX by 14+
55%
Spread: 4.5 pts better than Vegas for Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened TEX −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.146 #17Offense EPA / play+0.064 #35
−0.001 #53Defense EPA / play allowed−0.182 #4
+7.0% #13Offense success rate+4.7% #23
+0.1% #66Defense success rate allowed−9.8% #4
+0.134 #24Rushing EPA / play+0.065 #53
+0.165 #22Passing EPA / play+0.126 #28
−0.002 #55Rush defense EPA allowed−0.170 #9
+0.078 #78Pass defense EPA allowed−0.188 #11
+10.8 #8Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+8.1 #17
+0.2 #64Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−13.3 #1
Situational
+4.6% #24Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.1% #25
+1.0% #81Passing-down success allowed−9.4% #1
+1.79 #6Points per drive+1.19 #15
−0.09 #55Points per drive allowed−1.69 #1
Trenches
+0.08 #76Line yards per rush+0.14 #67
−0.03 #63Line yards per rush allowed−0.67 #6
−2.0% #70Runs stuffed at the line−2.1% #66
−3.0% #113Opponent runs stuffed+5.6% #11
−4.7% #14Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.1% #76
+1.3% #30Havoc created+5.1% #3
Big plays
+0.006 #73Rushing explosiveness−0.138 #125
+0.064 #90Passing explosiveness+0.215 #33
+0.33 #19Open-field yards per rush−0.23 #78
+0.026 #70Pass explosiveness allowed−0.243 #5
Style and schedule
60% #28Run rate56% #59
+0.4 #16Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+9.7 #1
Florida: last 5 games
| L19-38 | Missed | |
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| W52-28 | Covered | |
| W44-39 | Covered | |
| W52-3 | Missed |
Texas: last 5 games
| L24-27 | Missed | |
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| W30-6 | Missed | |
| W24-23 | Missed | |
| W59-7 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekFLATEX
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TEX −11.5 | 51.5 | FLA +400 · TEX −535 |
| BEAVER fair line | TEX −16 | 52.2 | FLA +536 · TEX −536 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| FLA | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 39.6 / 28.3 | Points for / against | 30.7 / 19.1 |
| +11.3 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| -1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.4 |
| 59.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.6 |