College football scores › Week 6 › Wyoming at San José State
BEAVER SJSU −4.5, lostBEAVER Over 42.5, lostBEAVER had SJSU 62% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WYO–SJSU) | 19–24 | 16–26 | – | 16–13 | |
| Spread | SJSU −4.7 | SJSU −9.7 | SJSU −4.5 | WYO by 3 | SJSU −4.5 ✗ |
| Total | 43.2 | 41.7 | 42.5 | 29 | Over 42.5 ✗ |
| SJSU win chance | 62% | – | −185 | Lost |
WYO by 14+
12%
WYO by 1–13
27%
SJSU by 1–13
34%
SJSU by 14+
28%
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for San José State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened SJSU −6.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.150 #123Offense EPA / play−0.126 #116
+0.127 #113Defense EPA / play allowed+0.055 #77
−5.3% #120Offense success rate−7.3% #132
+7.3% #132Defense success rate allowed+3.1% #95
−0.033 #101Rushing EPA / play−0.158 #131
−0.289 #133Passing EPA / play−0.038 #72
+0.108 #110Rush defense EPA allowed+0.086 #99
+0.146 #102Pass defense EPA allowed+0.049 #71
−16.6 #138Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.9 #108
+2.9 #86Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+4.8 #95
Situational
−6.7% #110Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.8% #128
+3.8% #103Passing-down success allowed−2.4% #45
−1.86 #137Points per drive−1.27 #124
+0.45 #95Points per drive allowed+0.37 #92
Trenches
+0.13 #63Line yards per rush−0.15 #108
+0.40 #125Line yards per rush allowed+0.21 #105
−1.7% #74Runs stuffed at the line+2.8% #125
−3.4% #122Opponent runs stuffed−4.5% #126
+0.2% #108Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.2% #107
−3.0% #116Havoc created−1.6% #91
Big plays
−0.086 #109Rushing explosiveness−0.077 #106
+0.040 #101Passing explosiveness+0.099 #74
−0.56 #123Open-field yards per rush−0.73 #133
−0.112 #26Pass explosiveness allowed−0.046 #51
Style and schedule
58% #40Run rate53% #107
−16.1 #121Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−11.5 #98
Wyoming: last 5 games
| L0-28 | Missed | |
| W27-10 | Covered | |
| L10-24 | Missed | |
| W21-13 | Missed | |
| L13-35 | Missed |
San José State: last 5 games
| W20-16 | Covered | |
| L10-26 | Missed | |
| W30-20 | Missed | |
| W27-21 | Covered | |
| L26-42 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWYOSJSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | SJSU −4.5 | 42.5 | WYO +154 · SJSU −185 |
| BEAVER fair line | SJSU −4.7 | 43.2 | WYO +162 · SJSU −162 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WYO | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-4 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-3 | Away | 3-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 2-6 | Over/under | 1-7 |
| 19.5 / 20.0 | Points for / against | 20.4 / 22.5 |
| -0.5 | Avg margin | -2.1 |
| -0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 57.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.9 |