College football scores › Week 7 › Washington at Purdue
BEAVER PUR −3.5, lostBEAVER Over 50.5, wonBEAVER had PUR 63% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WASH–PUR) | 24–29 | 24–30 | – | 38–26 | |
| Spread | PUR −5.2 | PUR −6.6 | PUR −3.5 | WASH by 12 | PUR −3.5 ✗ |
| Total | 52.9 | 54.2 | 50.5 | 64 | Over 50.5 ✓ |
| PUR win chance | 63% | – | −155 | Lost |
WASH by 14+
11%
WASH by 1–13
26%
PUR by 1–13
34%
PUR by 14+
29%
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Purdue (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened PUR −2.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.005 #66Offense EPA / play+0.127 #19
−0.006 #50Defense EPA / play allowed+0.102 #104
+0.6% #65Offense success rate+4.5% #25
+1.3% #80Defense success rate allowed+2.2% #87
−0.036 #98Rushing EPA / play+0.092 #42
−0.023 #66Passing EPA / play+0.178 #18
−0.000 #57Rush defense EPA allowed+0.054 #82
+0.040 #69Pass defense EPA allowed+0.119 #90
−1.1 #73Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+3.8 #35
−0.9 #57Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.8 #77
Situational
−4.8% #102Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.6% #33
+0.9% #80Passing-down success allowed+7.2% #126
−0.22 #78Points per drive+0.42 #41
−0.15 #50Points per drive allowed+0.70 #108
Trenches
+0.03 #86Line yards per rush+0.19 #54
+0.01 #68Line yards per rush allowed+0.22 #103
−0.8% #88Runs stuffed at the line−5.3% #25
+4.3% #17Opponent runs stuffed−3.5% #119
−1.6% #65Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.7% #13
+0.6% #46Havoc created−1.0% #80
Big plays
−0.103 #116Rushing explosiveness+0.046 #52
−0.060 #126Passing explosiveness+0.078 #80
−0.39 #102Open-field yards per rush−0.16 #70
+0.036 #78Pass explosiveness allowed+0.179 #129
Style and schedule
48% #130Run rate55% #67
−4.6 #50Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+4.0 #10
Washington: last 5 games
| L24-41 | Missed | |
| L21-25 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Missed | |
| W48-16 | Missed | |
| W16-14 | Missed |
Purdue: last 5 games
| W41-13 | Covered | |
| W24-17 | Covered | |
| L10-49 | Missed | |
| L38-52 | Missed | |
| L36-38 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWASHPUR
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | PUR −3.5 | 50.5 | WASH +130 · PUR −155 |
| BEAVER fair line | PUR −5.2 | 52.9 | WASH +169 · PUR −169 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WASH | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-2 | Home | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 27.9 / 22.7 | Points for / against | 31.3 / 32.3 |
| +5.1 | Avg margin | -1.0 |
| -9.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.4 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |