BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Georgia State at James Madison
Georgia State4-3away
22
FinalBridgeforth Stadium, 50°, wind 16 mph
James Madison7-1home
49
BEAVER JMU −9.5, wonBEAVER Over 58.5, wonBEAVER had JMU 75% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (GAST–JMU)24–3523–31–22–49
SpreadJMU −11.1JMU −7.6JMU −9.5JMU by 27JMU −9.5 ✓
Total59.353.458.571Over 58.5 ✓
JMU win chance75%–−355Won
GAST by 14+
6%
GAST by 1–13
19%
JMU by 1–13
32%
JMU by 14+
43%

Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened JMU −12.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.032 #49Offense EPA / play+0.040 #45
+0.074 #89Defense EPA / play allowed+0.015 #64
+1.5% #55Offense success rate+0.6% #66
+1.8% #82Defense success rate allowed−0.6% #53
+0.045 #66Rushing EPA / play+0.088 #43
+0.276 #7Passing EPA / play+0.035 #48
+0.142 #122Rush defense EPA allowed−0.014 #48
−0.016 #47Pass defense EPA allowed+0.059 #73
+2.0 #52Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+5.2 #28
+5.4 #103Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.0 #56
Situational
+6.6% #12Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.3% #36
−0.9% #61Passing-down success allowed+3.8% #103
+0.12 #61Points per drive+0.54 #33
+0.70 #109Points per drive allowed+0.02 #61
Trenches
+0.26 #41Line yards per rush+0.09 #75
+0.17 #98Line yards per rush allowed+0.02 #71
−0.9% #83Runs stuffed at the line−2.4% #60
+1.6% #47Opponent runs stuffed−2.6% #108
−3.6% #27Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.2% #19
+0.5% #49Havoc created−1.1% #82
Big plays
+0.103 #28Rushing explosiveness+0.029 #60
+0.369 #4Passing explosiveness+0.166 #45
+0.13 #40Open-field yards per rush+0.40 #16
+0.036 #77Pass explosiveness allowed+0.073 #92
Style and schedule
57% #44Run rate58% #41
−17.6 #132Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−17.8 #133

Georgia State: last 5 games

W42-10
vsOld Dominion
Covered
W35-14
vsNorthern Illinois
Covered
L30-44
atUCF
Covered
W31-17
atKennesaw State
Covered
W59-10
vsNorth Carolina A&T
Covered

James Madison: last 5 games

W27-24
atGeorgia Southern
Missed
W45-17
vsMarshall
Covered
W46-20
atOld Dominion
Covered
W26-13
atSan Diego State
Covered
W87-3
vsWagner
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.25−0.16−0.07+0.01+0.10Entering week1234567Georgia State · 1: −0.22Georgia State · 2: −0.19Georgia State · 3: −0.09Georgia State · 4: −0.10Georgia State · 5: −0.10Georgia State · 6: −0.04Georgia State · 7: −0.04James Madison · 1: −0.07James Madison · 2: −0.03James Madison · 3: −0.08James Madison · 4: +0.00James Madison · 5: +0.07James Madison · 6: +0.03James Madison · 7: +0.03
● Georgia State● James Madison