College football scores › Week 7 › East Carolina at UAB
BEAVER ECU −5.5, lostBEAVER Over 47.5, lostBEAVER had ECU 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ECU–UAB) | 27–21 | 26–21 | – | 17–30 | |
| Spread | ECU −6.1 | ECU −5.3 | ECU −5.5 | UAB by 13 | ECU −5.5 ✗ |
| Total | 47.9 | 47.4 | 47.5 | 47 | Over 47.5 ✗ |
| UAB win chance | 35% | – | +164 | Won |
ECU by 14+
31%
ECU by 1–13
34%
UAB by 1–13
25%
UAB by 14+
10%
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for East Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened ECU −6.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.029 #82Offense EPA / play−0.186 #128
−0.028 #40Defense EPA / play allowed+0.073 #87
−1.9% #86Offense success rate−2.8% #95
−2.9% #30Defense success rate allowed+6.0% #122
+0.008 #79Rushing EPA / play−0.019 #89
−0.060 #83Passing EPA / play−0.395 #137
+0.022 #69Rush defense EPA allowed+0.108 #106
−0.128 #18Pass defense EPA allowed−0.036 #40
−4.5 #89Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.7 #121
+1.5 #74Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.9 #108
Situational
−8.0% #119Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.9% #82
+2.1% #89Passing-down success allowed−0.3% #67
−0.42 #86Points per drive−1.09 #113
+0.39 #88Points per drive allowed+0.74 #111
Trenches
−0.09 #101Line yards per rush+0.15 #63
−0.35 #20Line yards per rush allowed+0.49 #133
−0.4% #94Runs stuffed at the line−4.3% #33
+6.8% #7Opponent runs stuffed−5.4% #132
+0.4% #107Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+0.6% #118
+1.0% #38Havoc created−1.7% #99
Big plays
+0.114 #24Rushing explosiveness−0.008 #79
+0.157 #53Passing explosiveness+0.109 #72
+0.70 #5Open-field yards per rush−0.55 #123
+0.017 #66Pass explosiveness allowed−0.184 #10
Style and schedule
55% #82Run rate61% #21
−10.6 #97Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.9 #111
East Carolina: last 5 games
| W28-12 | Covered | |
| W42-9 | Missed | |
| W20-17 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Missed | |
| L10-48 | Missed |
UAB: last 5 games
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekECUUAB
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ECU −5.5 | 47.5 | ECU −198 · UAB +164 |
| BEAVER fair line | ECU −6.1 | 47.9 | ECU −187 · UAB +187 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ECU | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-3-1 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 25.0 / 26.3 | Points for / against | 23.3 / 24.6 |
| -1.3 | Avg margin | -1.3 |
| -3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.6 |
| 61.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.4 |