College football scores › Week 6 › Duke at Georgia Tech
BEAVER GT +6.5, wonBEAVER Over 45.5, wonBEAVER had DUKE 60% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (DUKE–GT) | 29–25 | 33–13 | – | 25–28 | |
| Spread | DUKE −4.0 | DUKE −19.7 | DUKE −6.5 | GT by 3 | GT +6.5 ✓ |
| Total | 53.6 | 46.2 | 45.5 | 53 | Over 45.5 ✓ |
| GT win chance | 40% | – | +170 | Won |
DUKE by 14+
27%
DUKE by 1–13
33%
GT by 1–13
27%
GT by 14+
13%
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 8.1 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened DUKE −7.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.003 #66Offense EPA / play+0.043 #46
−0.031 #45Defense EPA / play allowed+0.099 #102
−1.5% #85Offense success rate+3.6% #34
+0.1% #65Defense success rate allowed+2.6% #90
+0.059 #60Rushing EPA / play+0.085 #48
−0.035 #71Passing EPA / play+0.021 #56
−0.135 #18Rush defense EPA allowed+0.037 #76
+0.026 #66Pass defense EPA allowed+0.196 #119
+1.5 #53Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.4 #71
−4.2 #34Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.6 #79
Situational
−5.4% #104Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.6% #58
−4.7% #19Passing-down success allowed+6.4% #125
+0.21 #57Points per drive−0.20 #77
−0.17 #48Points per drive allowed+0.10 #67
Trenches
+0.13 #62Line yards per rush+0.41 #21
−0.03 #64Line yards per rush allowed+0.03 #72
+0.7% #104Runs stuffed at the line−2.6% #60
−1.4% #92Opponent runs stuffed−0.8% #84
−3.7% #22Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.5% #67
+0.6% #44Havoc created−0.9% #72
Big plays
+0.074 #46Rushing explosiveness−0.120 #119
+0.140 #52Passing explosiveness+0.110 #66
+0.02 #49Open-field yards per rush−0.03 #56
−0.084 #33Pass explosiveness allowed+0.302 #136
Style and schedule
59% #34Run rate54% #88
−16.0 #120Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.9 #55
Duke: last 4 games
| W62-7 | Covered | |
| W35-7 | Covered | |
| W31-27 | Covered | |
| W17-3 | Covered |
Georgia Tech: last 4 games
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekDUKEGT
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | DUKE −6.5 | 45.5 | DUKE −205 · GT +170 |
| BEAVER fair line | DUKE −4 | 53.6 | DUKE −149 · GT +149 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| DUKE | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 1-6 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 5-2 |
| 29.9 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 26.7 / 30.3 |
| +13.9 | Avg margin | -3.6 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.7 |
| 63.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.7 |