College football scores › Week 6 › Miami (OH) at Massachusetts
BEAVER M-OH −5.5, lostBEAVER Over 44.5, lostBEAVER had M-OH 71% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (M-OH–MASS) | 31–22 | 22–31 | – | 20–19 | |
| Spread | M-OH −8.7 | MASS −9.5 | M-OH −5.5 | M-OH by 1 | M-OH −5.5 ✗ |
| Total | 53.2 | 53.2 | 44.5 | 39 | Over 44.5 ✗ |
| MASS win chance | 29% | – | +185 | Lost |
M-OH by 14+
37%
M-OH by 1–13
34%
MASS by 1–13
22%
MASS by 14+
8%
Spread: 3.2 pts better than Vegas for Miami (OH) (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 8.7 pts above Vegas (54% historically). Opened M-OH −2.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.002 #68Offense EPA / play−0.084 #100
+0.102 #103Defense EPA / play allowed+0.092 #98
−2.7% #93Offense success rate−4.0% #107
+5.1% #116Defense success rate allowed+6.7% #126
−0.062 #113Rushing EPA / play−0.030 #100
+0.156 #20Passing EPA / play−0.063 #81
+0.094 #104Rush defense EPA allowed+0.033 #72
+0.155 #107Pass defense EPA allowed+0.153 #105
−5.0 #89Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−8.9 #120
+7.1 #116Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+8.4 #123
Situational
−2.0% #68Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.9% #80
+4.3% #110Passing-down success allowed+5.9% #122
−0.10 #70Points per drive−0.77 #99
+0.87 #111Points per drive allowed+1.49 #131
Trenches
−0.07 #100Line yards per rush−0.08 #101
−0.06 #58Line yards per rush allowed+0.36 #121
−3.8% #42Runs stuffed at the line+1.1% #113
+1.4% #51Opponent runs stuffed−3.4% #121
−0.5% #93Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.7% #82
−3.0% #118Havoc created−3.1% #121
Big plays
−0.105 #115Rushing explosiveness−0.031 #89
+0.345 #9Passing explosiveness+0.141 #51
−0.42 #107Open-field yards per rush−0.57 #124
−0.032 #58Pass explosiveness allowed+0.031 #81
Style and schedule
53% #101Run rate59% #33
−11.3 #96Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−26.3 #138
Miami (OH): last 5 games
| L20-24 | Missed | |
| W24-21 | Covered | |
| L31-35 | Covered | |
| W45-7 | Covered | |
| L14-59 | Missed |
Massachusetts: last 5 games
| L14-38 | Missed | |
| W35-6 | Covered | |
| W36-14 | Missed | |
| W37-10 | Covered | |
| W37-21 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekM-OHMASS
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | M-OH −5.5 | 44.5 | M-OH −225 · MASS +185 |
| BEAVER fair line | M-OH −8.7 | 53.2 | M-OH −240 · MASS +240 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| M-OH | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-4 |
| 3-1 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-2 | Away | 2-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-4 |
| 6-2 | Over/under | 2-6 |
| 27.0 / 25.8 | Points for / against | 26.5 / 21.1 |
| +1.2 | Avg margin | +5.4 |
| -2.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.0 |
| 53.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.8 |