College football scores › Week 8 › Indiana at Michigan
BEAVER MICH +7.5, wonBEAVER Over 42.5, lostBEAVER had IU 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (IU–MICH) | 26–20 | 28–15 | – | 13–6 | |
| Spread | IU −6.0 | IU −12.5 | IU −7.5 | IU by 7 | MICH +7.5 ✓ |
| Total | 45.9 | 42.8 | 42.5 | 19 | Over 42.5 ✗ |
| MICH win chance | 35% | – | +240 | Lost |
IU by 14+
30%
IU by 1–13
35%
MICH by 1–13
25%
MICH by 14+
10%
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened IU −6.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.207 #6Offense EPA / play+0.002 #66
−0.158 #9Defense EPA / play allowed−0.123 #15
+4.4% #25Offense success rate+1.2% #63
−7.8% #8Defense success rate allowed−4.5% #23
+0.058 #53Rushing EPA / play+0.087 #40
+0.394 #2Passing EPA / play−0.057 #80
−0.160 #11Rush defense EPA allowed−0.116 #19
−0.143 #18Pass defense EPA allowed−0.179 #10
+7.8 #17Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.3 #73
−12.6 #3Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.8 #26
Situational
+0.9% #42Passing-down success (3rd & long)+3.7% #27
−3.3% #34Passing-down success allowed−1.9% #44
+1.39 #11Points per drive−0.18 #76
−1.18 #7Points per drive allowed−0.86 #18
Trenches
+0.21 #52Line yards per rush+0.31 #36
−0.63 #5Line yards per rush allowed−0.17 #43
−3.4% #49Runs stuffed at the line−5.5% #17
+3.4% #28Opponent runs stuffed+1.1% #50
−4.8% #15Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.7% #88
+3.3% #14Havoc created+0.3% #47
Big plays
−0.034 #92Rushing explosiveness+0.072 #41
+0.380 #4Passing explosiveness+0.094 #77
+0.55 #6Open-field yards per rush−0.18 #77
+0.018 #72Pass explosiveness allowed+0.027 #76
Style and schedule
60% #28Run rate61% #23
−1.7 #37Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.4 #26
Indiana: last 5 games
| L15-19 | Missed | |
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| W47-15 | Covered | |
| W29-23 | Missed | |
| W38-0 | Missed |
Michigan: last 5 games
| W21-18 | Missed | |
| L14-20 | Missed | |
| L19-20 | Missed | |
| W52-17 | Covered | |
| W17-10 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekIUMICH
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | IU −7.5 | 42.5 | IU −298 · MICH +240 |
| BEAVER fair line | IU −6 | 45.9 | IU −185 · MICH +185 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| IU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Home | 4-2 |
| 3-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-7 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 1-6 |
| 33.6 / 12.0 | Points for / against | 20.3 / 15.7 |
| +21.6 | Avg margin | +4.6 |
| -3.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.9 |
| 53.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |