College football scores › Week 6 › Maryland at Ohio State
BEAVER OSU −33.5, lostBEAVER Under 56.5, lostBEAVER had OSU 99% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MD–OSU) | 10–46 | 11–47 | – | 16–45 | |
| Spread | OSU −36.5 | OSU −36.6 | OSU −33.5 | OSU by 29 | OSU −33.5 ✗ |
| Total | 55.7 | 57.8 | 56.5 | 61 | Under 56.5 ✗ |
| OSU win chance | 99% | – | – | Won |
MD by 14+
0%
MD by 1–13
1%
OSU by 1–13
7%
OSU by 14+
92%
Spread: 3.0 pts better than Vegas for Ohio State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened OSU −34.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.078 #98Offense EPA / play+0.239 #4
−0.010 #53Defense EPA / play allowed−0.148 #7
−2.2% #91Offense success rate+12.4% #2
+0.5% #69Defense success rate allowed−5.5% #15
+0.027 #74Rushing EPA / play+0.138 #23
−0.190 #113Passing EPA / play+0.332 #3
−0.003 #52Rush defense EPA allowed−0.080 #25
−0.002 #51Pass defense EPA allowed−0.247 #5
−2.2 #76Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+15.0 #3
+4.1 #93Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−11.6 #4
Situational
−0.6% #57Passing-down success (3rd & long)+9.9% #5
+3.6% #101Passing-down success allowed−0.4% #63
−0.15 #73Points per drive+2.22 #5
+0.63 #103Points per drive allowed−1.18 #4
Trenches
−0.03 #94Line yards per rush+0.51 #9
−0.25 #28Line yards per rush allowed−0.25 #26
+0.1% #99Runs stuffed at the line−4.9% #26
+2.3% #38Opponent runs stuffed+2.7% #33
−2.7% #43Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.7% #15
−1.2% #80Havoc created+3.3% #12
Big plays
+0.178 #10Rushing explosiveness+0.011 #70
+0.020 #105Passing explosiveness+0.192 #36
+0.30 #21Open-field yards per rush−0.19 #76
−0.103 #27Pass explosiveness allowed+0.014 #74
Style and schedule
43% #137Run rate54% #92
−7.7 #66Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.9 #21
Maryland: last 5 games
| L23-48 | Missed | |
| L3-54 | Missed | |
| L26-35 | Missed | |
| W38-14 | Covered | |
| W62-0 | Covered |
Ohio State: last 5 games
| W31-14 | Covered | |
| W42-19 | Missed | |
| W59-3 | Covered | |
| L23-24 | Covered | |
| W56-3 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekMDOSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | OSU −33.5 | 56.5 | – |
| BEAVER fair line | OSU −36.5 | 55.7 | MD +8521 · OSU −8521 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| MD | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 0-4 | Conference | 4-0 |
| 1-3 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 6-1 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 28.3 / 33.3 | Points for / against | 39.3 / 13.4 |
| -5.0 | Avg margin | +25.9 |
| -6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.9 |
| 56.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.9 |