College football scores › Week 8 › Vanderbilt at Kentucky
BEAVER UK −10.5, wonBEAVER Over 52.5, lostBEAVER had UK 81% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (VAN–UK) | 21–35 | 17–41 | – | 17–34 | |
| Spread | UK −14.4 | UK −24.1 | UK −10.5 | UK by 17 | UK −10.5 ✓ |
| Total | 55.6 | 57.7 | 52.5 | 51 | Over 52.5 ✗ |
| UK win chance | 81% | – | −440 | Won |
VAN by 14+
4%
VAN by 1–13
15%
UK by 1–13
31%
UK by 14+
51%
Spread: 3.9 pts better than Vegas for Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically). Opened UK −9.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.026 #80Offense EPA / play+0.099 #26
+0.011 #62Defense EPA / play allowed−0.094 #22
−0.7% #75Offense success rate+7.6% #12
−0.0% #64Defense success rate allowed−0.1% #60
+0.104 #36Rushing EPA / play+0.158 #20
−0.030 #69Passing EPA / play+0.052 #49
−0.003 #60Rush defense EPA allowed−0.019 #49
+0.030 #64Pass defense EPA allowed−0.115 #22
−1.6 #75Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+6.7 #22
+1.6 #72Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.0 #29
Situational
−3.7% #87Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.4% #37
−0.3% #61Passing-down success allowed+5.2% #116
−0.21 #78Points per drive+0.61 #33
+0.25 #76Points per drive allowed−0.90 #14
Trenches
+0.30 #37Line yards per rush+0.54 #8
−0.10 #56Line yards per rush allowed−0.18 #41
−3.8% #38Runs stuffed at the line−5.1% #21
−1.5% #93Opponent runs stuffed+0.7% #54
−2.3% #44Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.3% #19
−1.5% #92Havoc created+3.0% #16
Big plays
+0.132 #16Rushing explosiveness−0.070 #104
+0.074 #88Passing explosiveness−0.038 #118
−0.50 #116Open-field yards per rush+0.17 #33
+0.067 #91Pass explosiveness allowed−0.130 #18
Style and schedule
54% #87Run rate55% #72
+1.7 #18Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+8.4 #3
Vanderbilt: last 5 games
Kentucky: last 5 games
| W21-13 | Covered | |
| W35-34 | Covered | |
| W35-34 | Covered | |
| W45-21 | Covered | |
| W31-21 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekVANUK
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UK −10.5 | 52.5 | VAN +340 · UK −440 |
| BEAVER fair line | UK −14.4 | 55.6 | VAN +440 · UK −440 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| VAN | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 7-1 |
| 0-5 | Conference | 5-1 |
| 3-2 | Home | 4-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 3-0 |
| 3-5 | Against the spread | 7-1 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 22.8 / 30.2 | Points for / against | 32.9 / 24.8 |
| -7.5 | Avg margin | +8.1 |
| -8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.2 |
| 58.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |