College football scores › Week 6 › Coastal Carolina at Marshall
BEAVER CCU +4.5, wonBEAVER Under 58.5, wonBEAVER had MRSH 59% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CCU–MRSH) | 27–30 | 24–28 | – | 27–21 | |
| Spread | MRSH −3.5 | MRSH −4.4 | MRSH −4.5 | CCU by 6 | CCU +4.5 ✓ |
| Total | 56.6 | 51.6 | 58.5 | 48 | Under 58.5 ✓ |
| MRSH win chance | 59% | – | −198 | Lost |
CCU by 14+
14%
CCU by 1–13
28%
MRSH by 1–13
33%
MRSH by 14+
26%
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for Coastal Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened MRSH −3.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.089 #103Offense EPA / play+0.011 #61
+0.111 #107Defense EPA / play allowed+0.289 #138
−5.0% #116Offense success rate−0.1% #74
+5.6% #120Defense success rate allowed+9.1% #137
−0.025 #97Rushing EPA / play−0.067 #114
−0.166 #108Passing EPA / play+0.099 #34
+0.034 #73Rush defense EPA allowed+0.111 #112
+0.327 #134Pass defense EPA allowed+0.436 #138
−8.3 #112Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−6.7 #100
+6.2 #109Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+10.7 #131
Situational
−2.5% #75Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.0% #101
−1.9% #47Passing-down success allowed+6.2% #123
−1.26 #123Points per drive−1.11 #118
+0.46 #96Points per drive allowed+1.24 #126
Trenches
+0.28 #39Line yards per rush+0.16 #60
+0.25 #113Line yards per rush allowed+0.61 #138
−3.2% #57Runs stuffed at the line−1.3% #79
−2.5% #107Opponent runs stuffed−6.4% #135
+2.3% #132Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.9% #76
−3.4% #125Havoc created−4.4% #135
Big plays
−0.085 #108Rushing explosiveness−0.195 #132
+0.447 #2Passing explosiveness+0.102 #73
−0.35 #98Open-field yards per rush−0.48 #114
−0.063 #41Pass explosiveness allowed+0.255 #134
Style and schedule
53% #106Run rate54% #84
−13.6 #113Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.9 #80
Coastal Carolina: last 5 games
| L24-31 | Missed | |
| L17-34 | Missed | |
| L14-22 | Missed | |
| W45-7 | Covered | |
| L24-31 | Covered |
Marshall: last 5 games
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| W36-35 | Missed | |
| W30-24 | Covered | |
| W28-26 | Missed | |
| L0-45 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekCCUMRSH
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MRSH −4.5 | 58.5 | CCU +164 · MRSH −198 |
| BEAVER fair line | MRSH −3.5 | 56.6 | CCU +142 · MRSH −142 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| CCU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 26.1 / 25.9 | Points for / against | 21.7 / 30.7 |
| +0.3 | Avg margin | -9.0 |
| +0.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.7 |
| 62.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 68.0 |