College football scores › Week 6 › Sacramento State at Bowling Green
BEAVER SAC +8.5, lostBEAVER Under 43.5, lostBEAVER had BGSU 68% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SAC–BGSU) | 17–24 | 20–25 | – | 10–38 | |
| Spread | BGSU −7.4 | BGSU −4.2 | BGSU −8.5 | BGSU by 28 | SAC +8.5 ✗ |
| Total | 41.4 | 45.1 | 43.5 | 48 | Under 43.5 ✗ |
| BGSU win chance | 68% | – | −325 | Won |
SAC by 14+
8%
SAC by 1–13
23%
BGSU by 1–13
35%
BGSU by 14+
34%
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Sacramento State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened BGSU −7.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.236 #135Offense EPA / play−0.247 #137
+0.164 #126Defense EPA / play allowed+0.063 #80
−6.7% #129Offense success rate−7.2% #131
+2.9% #93Defense success rate allowed+4.3% #108
−0.196 #136Rushing EPA / play−0.267 #137
−0.256 #128Passing EPA / play−0.215 #120
+0.060 #89Rush defense EPA allowed+0.125 #117
+0.232 #126Pass defense EPA allowed−0.019 #43
−15.1 #136Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−15.1 #137
+12.5 #133Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.5 #104
Situational
−10.2% #131Passing-down success (3rd & long)−9.7% #127
−2.6% #42Passing-down success allowed−3.0% #35
−1.87 #138Points per drive−1.56 #135
+1.65 #135Points per drive allowed+1.15 #124
Trenches
−0.69 #137Line yards per rush−0.50 #134
+0.43 #128Line yards per rush allowed+0.43 #126
+8.7% #137Runs stuffed at the line+3.5% #128
−4.7% #129Opponent runs stuffed−1.4% #93
+2.2% #130Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.6% #125
−4.9% #138Havoc created−2.3% #107
Big plays
−0.066 #103Rushing explosiveness−0.342 #137
−0.131 #133Passing explosiveness+0.047 #99
−0.31 #90Open-field yards per rush−0.94 #137
+0.026 #79Pass explosiveness allowed−0.049 #48
Style and schedule
47% #131Run rate58% #38
−19.5 #136Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−3.4 #37
Sacramento State: last 5 games
| L6-35 | Missed | |
| L10-31 | Covered | |
| L3-49 | Missed | |
| W52-0 | Covered | |
| L17-28 | Missed |
Bowling Green: last 5 games
| W24-20 | Covered | |
| L6-14 | Covered | |
| L7-55 | Missed | |
| L7-56 | Missed | |
| L13-20 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSACBGSU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | BGSU −8.5 | 43.5 | SAC +260 · BGSU −325 |
| BEAVER fair line | BGSU −7.4 | 41.4 | SAC +215 · BGSU −215 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SAC | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 2-6 |
| 0-5 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 1-3 |
| 0-4 | Away | 1-3 |
| 2-6 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 3-5 | Over/under | 6-2 |
| 15.2 / 32.9 | Points for / against | 18.8 / 29.8 |
| -17.6 | Avg margin | -11.0 |
| -9.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.6 |
| 47.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.0 |