BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › Texas A&M at Missouri
Texas A&M4-4away
6
FinalMemorial Stadium, 82°, wind 7 mph
MissouriNo. 235-2home
27
BEAVER TA&M +3.5, lostBEAVER Under 50.5, wonBEAVER had MIZ 56% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (TA&M–MIZ)23–2618–34–6–27
SpreadMIZ −2.4MIZ −15.8MIZ −3.5MIZ by 21TA&M +3.5 ✗
Total49.252.650.533Under 50.5 ✓
MIZ win chance56%–−205Won
TA&M by 14+
15%
TA&M by 1–13
29%
MIZ by 1–13
33%
MIZ by 14+
23%

Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Texas A&M (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened MIZ −1.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.027 #52Offense EPA / play+0.093 #26
−0.050 #37Defense EPA / play allowed−0.136 #9
+2.6% #43Offense success rate+2.4% #45
−4.2% #20Defense success rate allowed−7.7% #6
+0.066 #55Rushing EPA / play+0.035 #69
+0.027 #50Passing EPA / play+0.186 #16
−0.153 #14Rush defense EPA allowed−0.196 #4
+0.083 #84Pass defense EPA allowed−0.067 #27
+4.9 #30Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+4.6 #34
−8.0 #11Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.9 #20
Situational
+2.1% #39Passing-down success (3rd & long)+1.9% #40
−5.2% #15Passing-down success allowed−5.1% #16
+0.64 #27Points per drive+0.48 #36
−1.01 #9Points per drive allowed−0.76 #17
Trenches
+0.31 #32Line yards per rush+0.12 #66
−0.24 #29Line yards per rush allowed−0.73 #5
−3.3% #54Runs stuffed at the line−2.1% #66
+2.5% #36Opponent runs stuffed+7.8% #4
−3.3% #31Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.0% #74
+1.6% #30Havoc created+5.5% #3
Big plays
−0.009 #80Rushing explosiveness−0.062 #102
−0.017 #118Passing explosiveness+0.169 #44
−0.16 #72Open-field yards per rush+0.10 #38
+0.181 #123Pass explosiveness allowed+0.124 #112
Style and schedule
57% #50Run rate58% #44
+1.4 #15Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.1 #57

Texas A&M: last 5 games

W34-7
vsArkansas
Covered
L6-35
atLSU
Missed
L21-31
vsKentucky
Missed
W48-20
vsArizona State
Covered
W50-0
vsMissouri State
Covered

Missouri: last 5 games

W45-17
vsFlorida
Covered
L24-31
atMississippi State
Missed
W27-17
vsTroy
Missed
W38-21
atKansas
Covered
W54-14
vsUAPB
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.06+0.15+0.24+0.32Entering week123456Texas A&M · 1: +0.23Texas A&M · 2: +0.27Texas A&M · 3: +0.30Texas A&M · 4: +0.09Texas A&M · 5: +0.05Texas A&M · 6: +0.08Missouri · 1: +0.15Missouri · 2: +0.09Missouri · 3: +0.16Missouri · 4: +0.16Missouri · 5: +0.17Missouri · 6: +0.23
● Texas A&M● Missouri