College football scores › Week 8 › Rice at Florida Atlantic
BEAVER FAU −8.5, lostBEAVER Over 53.5, wonBEAVER had FAU 74% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (RICE–FAU) | 22–33 | 24–33 | – | 49–51 | |
| Spread | FAU −10.4 | FAU −8.9 | FAU −8.5 | FAU by 2 | FAU −8.5 ✗ |
| Total | 55.0 | 56.6 | 53.5 | 100 | Over 53.5 ✓ |
| FAU win chance | 74% | – | −355 | Won |
RICE by 14+
6%
RICE by 1–13
19%
FAU by 1–13
33%
FAU by 14+
41%
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for Florida Atlantic (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened FAU −10.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.145 #121Offense EPA / play+0.008 #64
+0.084 #91Defense EPA / play allowed+0.192 #130
−4.4% #109Offense success rate+1.3% #62
+1.9% #83Defense success rate allowed+3.3% #95
+0.009 #81Rushing EPA / play+0.068 #48
−0.511 #137Passing EPA / play−0.048 #78
+0.121 #110Rush defense EPA allowed+0.200 #134
+0.020 #58Pass defense EPA allowed−0.037 #41
−10.6 #121Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.8 #71
+5.6 #106Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+11.1 #129
Situational
−11.0% #133Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.7% #25
+5.5% #119Passing-down success allowed+4.1% #111
−1.12 #115Points per drive+1.05 #18
+0.86 #113Points per drive allowed+1.70 #134
Trenches
−0.05 #95Line yards per rush+0.17 #56
+0.13 #88Line yards per rush allowed+0.05 #71
−0.2% #90Runs stuffed at the line−5.2% #20
−0.3% #72Opponent runs stuffed+0.7% #57
+0.2% #107Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.1% #72
+0.1% #53Havoc created−2.0% #104
Big plays
+0.122 #19Rushing explosiveness+0.052 #52
+0.154 #52Passing explosiveness−0.068 #128
+0.31 #18Open-field yards per rush−0.77 #134
+0.084 #102Pass explosiveness allowed−0.081 #31
Style and schedule
78% #4Run rate47% #129
−4.4 #57Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−15.5 #127
Rice: last 5 games
| L17-38 | Missed | |
| L12-28 | Missed | |
| L14-16 | Covered | |
| L24-38 | Missed | |
| L21-28 | Covered |
Florida Atlantic: last 5 games
| L24-56 | Missed | |
| W66-10 | Covered | |
| W45-17 | Covered | |
| W16-10 | Covered | |
| W38-30 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekRICEFAU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | FAU −8.5 | 53.5 | RICE +280 · FAU −355 |
| BEAVER fair line | FAU −10.4 | 55.0 | RICE +288 · FAU −288 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| RICE | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 5-2 |
| 0-4 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 1-3 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-4 | Away | 1-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 6-1 |
| 21.0 / 31.8 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 34.0 |
| -10.8 | Avg margin | +3.3 |
| -1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.5 |
| 59.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.4 |