College football scores › Week 8 › James Madison at App State
BEAVER JMU −11.5, lostBEAVER Under 56.5, lostBEAVER had JMU 79% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (JMU–APP) | 34–21 | 33–19 | – | 31–34 | |
| Spread | JMU −13.1 | JMU −14.4 | JMU −11.5 | APP by 3 | JMU −11.5 ✗ |
| Total | 54.2 | 52.5 | 56.5 | 65 | Under 56.5 ✗ |
| APP win chance | 21% | – | +370 | Won |
JMU by 14+
48%
JMU by 1–13
32%
APP by 1–13
16%
APP by 14+
5%
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for James Madison (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened JMU −10.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.050 #40Offense EPA / play−0.070 #94
+0.014 #63Defense EPA / play allowed+0.099 #100
+0.6% #65Offense success rate−3.1% #97
−0.1% #61Defense success rate allowed+5.9% #119
+0.081 #41Rushing EPA / play−0.097 #121
+0.078 #38Passing EPA / play+0.010 #56
−0.002 #61Rush defense EPA allowed+0.165 #126
+0.016 #57Pass defense EPA allowed+0.063 #80
+6.5 #26Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.1 #93
−1.1 #54Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+5.1 #100
Situational
+2.6% #31Passing-down success (3rd & long)−0.2% #53
+3.5% #103Passing-down success allowed−0.9% #52
+0.58 #34Points per drive−0.43 #87
+0.01 #59Points per drive allowed+0.47 #94
Trenches
+0.14 #58Line yards per rush−0.21 #119
+0.09 #81Line yards per rush allowed+0.24 #107
−3.0% #57Runs stuffed at the line+0.2% #97
−3.4% #116Opponent runs stuffed−1.8% #96
−4.4% #18Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.8% #81
−1.0% #84Havoc created−1.7% #95
Big plays
+0.003 #75Rushing explosiveness−0.030 #91
+0.222 #30Passing explosiveness+0.154 #53
+0.32 #16Open-field yards per rush−0.78 #135
+0.044 #86Pass explosiveness allowed−0.167 #11
Style and schedule
58% #39Run rate54% #94
−15.8 #128Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−17.5 #134
James Madison: last 5 games
| W49-22 | Covered | |
| W27-24 | Missed | |
| W45-17 | Covered | |
| W46-20 | Covered | |
| W26-13 | Covered |
App State: last 5 games
| W35-32 | Covered | |
| L3-10 | Missed | |
| L31-41 | Covered | |
| W26-21 | Missed | |
| W27-24 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekJMUAPP
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | JMU −11.5 | 56.5 | JMU −485 · APP +370 |
| BEAVER fair line | JMU −13.1 | 54.2 | JMU −384 · APP +384 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| JMU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 4-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 6-2 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 41.4 / 18.2 | Points for / against | 30.1 / 23.1 |
| +23.1 | Avg margin | +7.0 |
| +10.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.7 |
| 64.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 67.1 |