College football scores › Week 7 › North Carolina at Duke
BEAVER UNC +3, wonBEAVER Over 46.5, lostBEAVER had DUKE 51% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNC–DUKE) | 23–24 | 21–22 | – | 24–20 | |
| Spread | DUKE −0.5 | DUKE −1.1 | DUKE −3 | UNC by 4 | UNC +3 ✓ |
| Total | 47.5 | 43.2 | 46.5 | 44 | Over 46.5 ✗ |
| DUKE win chance | 51% | – | −155 | Lost |
UNC by 14+
18%
UNC by 1–13
31%
DUKE by 1–13
32%
DUKE by 14+
20%
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for North Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.0 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened DUKE −4.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.046 #43Offense EPA / play+0.017 #53
−0.062 #31Defense EPA / play allowed+0.008 #59
+5.0% #20Offense success rate−1.1% #76
+1.3% #79Defense success rate allowed+0.1% #65
+0.061 #57Rushing EPA / play+0.080 #49
+0.060 #40Passing EPA / play−0.028 #69
+0.040 #76Rush defense EPA allowed−0.098 #24
−0.117 #23Pass defense EPA allowed+0.062 #74
−1.1 #71Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+1.4 #57
−6.1 #22Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.7 #34
Situational
+2.6% #32Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.7% #81
−4.1% #26Passing-down success allowed−4.5% #20
+0.02 #67Points per drive+0.24 #53
−0.80 #18Points per drive allowed−0.18 #48
Trenches
+0.33 #32Line yards per rush+0.16 #61
+0.29 #113Line yards per rush allowed−0.16 #38
−3.0% #49Runs stuffed at the line−0.5% #92
−7.3% #138Opponent runs stuffed+1.2% #53
−1.5% #66Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−4.1% #21
−2.1% #101Havoc created+0.1% #55
Big plays
−0.091 #113Rushing explosiveness+0.142 #19
+0.093 #74Passing explosiveness+0.055 #96
−0.30 #89Open-field yards per rush−0.08 #61
−0.211 #7Pass explosiveness allowed−0.103 #26
Style and schedule
54% #89Run rate57% #52
+3.8 #11Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.9 #110
North Carolina: last 5 games
| W21-17 | Covered | |
| L26-37 | Covered | |
| L20-28 | Missed | |
| W35-3 | Missed | |
| W15-10 | Covered |
Duke: last 5 games
| L25-28 | Missed | |
| W62-7 | Covered | |
| W35-7 | Covered | |
| W31-27 | Covered | |
| W17-3 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUNCDUKE
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | DUKE −3 | 46.5 | UNC +130 · DUKE −155 |
| BEAVER fair line | DUKE −0.5 | 47.5 | UNC +105 · DUKE −105 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UNC | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 3-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 24.4 / 20.9 | Points for / against | 29.9 / 16.0 |
| +3.6 | Avg margin | +13.9 |
| +2.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 57.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.1 |