College football scores › Week 7 › Pittsburgh at Boston College
BEAVER PITT −6.5, lostBEAVER Under 42.5, lostBEAVER had PITT 79% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (PITT–BC) | 26–14 | 30–16 | – | 21–27 | |
| Spread | PITT −12.2 | PITT −13.8 | PITT −6.5 | BC by 6 | PITT −6.5 ✗ |
| Total | 40.7 | 45.7 | 42.5 | 48 | Under 42.5 ✗ |
| BC win chance | 21% | – | +200 | Won |
PITT by 14+
45%
PITT by 1–13
33%
BC by 1–13
17%
BC by 14+
4%
Spread: 5.7 pts better than Vegas for Pittsburgh (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened PITT −7.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.009 #67Offense EPA / play−0.164 #124
−0.090 #22Defense EPA / play allowed−0.004 #52
−2.0% #90Offense success rate−5.1% #115
−6.4% #12Defense success rate allowed−1.3% #43
+0.024 #74Rushing EPA / play−0.067 #110
−0.039 #72Passing EPA / play−0.196 #116
−0.186 #5Rush defense EPA allowed+0.025 #70
−0.023 #46Pass defense EPA allowed+0.016 #61
+3.1 #44Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−10.8 #127
−4.5 #29Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.2 #72
Situational
−0.2% #54Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.3% #113
−8.5% #4Passing-down success allowed+3.9% #106
+0.79 #24Points per drive−1.43 #131
−0.68 #25Points per drive allowed−0.06 #56
Trenches
+0.27 #39Line yards per rush−0.13 #106
−0.99 #2Line yards per rush allowed−0.02 #64
−2.5% #58Runs stuffed at the line+3.5% #131
+6.9% #6Opponent runs stuffed+1.9% #42
−2.8% #38Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+1.9% #126
+1.9% #24Havoc created+0.9% #40
Big plays
+0.016 #69Rushing explosiveness+0.053 #49
+0.226 #30Passing explosiveness+0.141 #60
−0.17 #71Open-field yards per rush−0.31 #93
+0.053 #85Pass explosiveness allowed−0.098 #28
Style and schedule
52% #105Run rate56% #62
−8.7 #84Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−9.7 #89
Pittsburgh: last 5 games
| L17-21 | Missed | |
| W35-33 | Covered | |
| W59-0 | Covered | |
| W27-13 | Covered | |
| W12-7 | Missed |
Boston College: last 5 games
| L16-25 | Covered | |
| L14-21 | Covered | |
| W22-16 | Missed | |
| W28-21 | Covered | |
| L15-34 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekPITTBC
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | PITT −6.5 | 42.5 | PITT −245 · BC +200 |
| BEAVER fair line | PITT −12.2 | 40.7 | PITT −367 · BC +367 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| PITT | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 2-3 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 5-2 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 31.6 / 20.9 | Points for / against | 24.4 / 23.6 |
| +10.8 | Avg margin | +0.9 |
| +1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.1 |
| 58.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 65.7 |