College football scores › Week 7 › Arkansas State at Southern Miss
BEAVER USM +6.5, lostBEAVER Under 62.5, wonBEAVER had ARST 53% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ARST–USM) | 29–28 | 31–29 | – | 23–13 | |
| Spread | ARST −1.4 | ARST −2.0 | ARST −6.5 | ARST by 10 | USM +6.5 ✗ |
| Total | 56.6 | 60.1 | 62.5 | 36 | Under 62.5 ✓ |
| USM win chance | 47% | – | +180 | Lost |
ARST by 14+
22%
ARST by 1–13
32%
USM by 1–13
30%
USM by 14+
17%
Spread: 5.1 pts better than Vegas for Southern Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.9 pts below Vegas (49% historically). Opened ARST −7.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.044 #88Offense EPA / play−0.085 #102
+0.153 #120Defense EPA / play allowed+0.157 #122
+2.5% #45Offense success rate−1.9% #87
+7.1% #127Defense success rate allowed+5.5% #119
+0.034 #69Rushing EPA / play+0.056 #59
−0.082 #92Passing EPA / play−0.131 #102
+0.057 #84Rush defense EPA allowed+0.191 #133
+0.275 #129Pass defense EPA allowed+0.172 #109
−3.4 #82Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−4.9 #93
+6.1 #112Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+10.9 #129
Situational
+0.7% #43Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.1% #105
+5.5% #116Passing-down success allowed+3.4% #98
−0.11 #72Points per drive−0.37 #85
+0.65 #104Points per drive allowed+1.29 #129
Trenches
+0.03 #85Line yards per rush+0.30 #37
+0.53 #136Line yards per rush allowed+0.38 #123
−1.3% #78Runs stuffed at the line−5.5% #23
−5.8% #134Opponent runs stuffed−3.8% #122
−1.2% #70Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.6% #89
−4.3% #133Havoc created−4.7% #135
Big plays
−0.047 #97Rushing explosiveness−0.129 #123
+0.026 #102Passing explosiveness+0.113 #69
−0.70 #131Open-field yards per rush−0.66 #127
+0.092 #97Pass explosiveness allowed+0.025 #68
Style and schedule
53% #103Run rate51% #118
−9.1 #85Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.2 #106
Arkansas State: last 5 games
| L49-56 | Missed | |
| L20-23 | Covered | |
| W17-14 | Missed | |
| L7-31 | Missed | |
| W52-7 | Covered |
Southern Miss: last 5 games
| L34-55 | Missed | |
| L21-24 | Covered | |
| L20-48 | Missed | |
| L8-43 | Missed | |
| W49-3 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekARSTUSM
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ARST −6.5 | 62.5 | ARST −218 · USM +180 |
| BEAVER fair line | ARST −1.4 | 56.6 | ARST −115 · USM +115 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ARST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 1-3 | Away | 0-3 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 28.8 / 27.2 | Points for / against | 25.7 / 32.4 |
| +1.5 | Avg margin | -6.7 |
| +0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.8 |
| 60.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.4 |