BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Nevada at North Dakota State
Nevada3-4away
17
FinalFargodome, indoors
North Dakota State6-2home
31
BEAVER NEV +14.5, wonBEAVER Over 42.5, wonBEAVER had NDSU 72% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (NEV–NDSU)18–2718–30–17–31
SpreadNDSU −9.2NDSU −12.2NDSU −14.5NDSU by 14NEV +14.5 ✓
Total45.847.342.548Over 42.5 ✓
NDSU win chance72%–−700Won
NEV by 14+
7%
NEV by 1–13
21%
NDSU by 1–13
34%
NDSU by 14+
38%

Spread: 5.3 pts better than Vegas for Nevada (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.137 #117Offense EPA / play−0.073 #95
+0.127 #109Defense EPA / play allowed−0.079 #26
−5.0% #114Offense success rate−3.8% #102
+0.9% #76Defense success rate allowed+0.7% #70
+0.012 #77Rushing EPA / play−0.053 #106
−0.279 #130Passing EPA / play−0.049 #75
+0.089 #102Rush defense EPA allowed−0.125 #16
+0.304 #134Pass defense EPA allowed+0.043 #71
−7.5 #106Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−4.6 #91
+4.5 #97Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.1 #45
Situational
−3.9% #90Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.8% #70
+2.6% #93Passing-down success allowed−5.1% #15
−1.29 #127Points per drive−0.26 #80
+0.40 #93Points per drive allowed+0.02 #62
Trenches
−0.05 #95Line yards per rush−0.14 #110
+0.16 #95Line yards per rush allowed+0.04 #75
+0.6% #103Runs stuffed at the line+1.4% #110
−2.4% #104Opponent runs stuffed+1.0% #55
+0.5% #110Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.6% #91
−2.9% #120Havoc created−0.7% #74
Big plays
+0.046 #53Rushing explosiveness+0.125 #23
+0.201 #37Passing explosiveness+0.234 #28
+0.20 #31Open-field yards per rush−0.40 #103
+0.164 #125Pass explosiveness allowed+0.057 #86
Style and schedule
62% #15Run rate62% #18
−16.3 #127Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−18.8 #136

Nevada: last 5 games

W30-13
atUTEP
Covered
L33-36
vsAir Force
Covered
L20-27
atMiddle Tennessee
Missed
L7-20
vsMontana State
Missed
W49-14
vsWestern Kentucky
Covered

North Dakota State: last 5 games

L7-13
atUNLV
Missed
W28-0
vsWyoming
Covered
W31-10
atSacramento State
Missed
W38-32
atAir Force
Covered
W38-0
vsFordham
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.33−0.23−0.14−0.05+0.05Entering week1234567Nevada · 1: −0.25Nevada · 2: −0.10Nevada · 3: −0.22Nevada · 4: −0.28Nevada · 5: −0.27Nevada · 6: −0.30Nevada · 7: −0.26North Dakota State · 1: −0.16North Dakota State · 2: +0.02North Dakota State · 3: −0.01North Dakota State · 4: +0.02North Dakota State · 5: +0.01North Dakota State · 6: +0.02North Dakota State · 7: +0.01
● Nevada● North Dakota State