College football scores › Week 7 › Utah at Colorado
BEAVER UTAH −14.5, lostBEAVER Under 49.5, lostBEAVER had UTAH 88% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UTAH–COLO) | 32–14 | 31–12 | – | 27–24 | |
| Spread | UTAH −18.5 | UTAH −19.0 | UTAH −14.5 | UTAH by 3 | UTAH −14.5 ✗ |
| Total | 45.8 | 43.8 | 49.5 | 51 | Under 49.5 ✗ |
| COLO win chance | 12% | – | +550 | Lost |
UTAH by 14+
61%
UTAH by 1–13
27%
COLO by 1–13
10%
COLO by 14+
2%
Spread: 4.0 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.7 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened UTAH −16.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.184 #10Offense EPA / play−0.090 #103
−0.065 #30Defense EPA / play allowed−0.085 #23
+8.6% #8Offense success rate−1.4% #81
−4.8% #19Defense success rate allowed−4.4% #22
+0.233 #5Rushing EPA / play−0.134 #128
+0.122 #30Passing EPA / play−0.053 #77
−0.045 #38Rush defense EPA allowed−0.189 #4
−0.081 #28Pass defense EPA allowed+0.065 #75
+10.3 #10Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.0 #105
−7.1 #16Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−1.8 #47
Situational
+11.8% #3Passing-down success (3rd & long)−1.6% #68
−1.0% #59Passing-down success allowed−3.4% #31
+1.48 #10Points per drive−0.63 #96
−0.56 #30Points per drive allowed−0.13 #52
Trenches
+0.58 #8Line yards per rush−0.01 #89
−0.27 #29Line yards per rush allowed−0.46 #12
−1.5% #76Runs stuffed at the line−1.2% #79
+4.3% #18Opponent runs stuffed+8.9% #4
−2.5% #42Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.4% #97
+1.1% #37Havoc created+2.9% #14
Big plays
+0.197 #6Rushing explosiveness−0.215 #135
+0.025 #103Passing explosiveness+0.160 #49
+0.36 #18Open-field yards per rush−0.25 #82
+0.043 #83Pass explosiveness allowed+0.210 #132
Style and schedule
56% #55Run rate55% #69
−7.4 #74Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−0.7 #23
Utah: last 5 games
| W41-24 | Covered | |
| W31-17 | Covered | |
| W33-0 | Covered | |
| W43-10 | Covered | |
| W66-14 | Covered |
Colorado: last 5 games
| L7-29 | Missed | |
| L13-23 | Missed | |
| L7-41 | Missed | |
| W52-21 | Missed | |
| W14-13 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekUTAHCOLO
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UTAH −14.5 | 49.5 | UTAH −800 · COLO +550 |
| BEAVER fair line | UTAH −18.5 | 45.8 | UTAH −743 · COLO +743 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| UTAH | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | Record | 2-5 |
| 4-0 | Conference | 0-4 |
| 5-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-3 |
| 6-1 | Against the spread | 2-5 |
| 4-3 | Over/under | 4-3 |
| 37.4 / 14.6 | Points for / against | 20.1 / 30.1 |
| +22.9 | Avg margin | -10.0 |
| +5.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.9 |
| 59.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.9 |