College football scores › Week 8 › Syracuse at North Carolina
BEAVER UNC −9.5, lostBEAVER Over 47.5, wonBEAVER had UNC 75% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SYR–UNC) | 21–31 | 18–32 | – | 31–30 | |
| Spread | UNC −10.5 | UNC −13.2 | UNC −9.5 | SYR by 1 | UNC −9.5 ✗ |
| Total | 52.0 | 49.9 | 47.5 | 61 | Over 47.5 ✓ |
| UNC win chance | 75% | – | −360 | Lost |
SYR by 14+
6%
SYR by 1–13
19%
UNC by 1–13
33%
UNC by 14+
41%
Spread: 1.0 pts better than Vegas for North Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.5 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.081 #100Offense EPA / play+0.041 #43
+0.009 #59Defense EPA / play allowed−0.066 #29
−0.1% #70Offense success rate+5.0% #22
+1.2% #80Defense success rate allowed+0.8% #73
+0.022 #74Rushing EPA / play+0.069 #46
−0.113 #93Passing EPA / play+0.063 #45
+0.051 #82Rush defense EPA allowed−0.024 #45
−0.107 #24Pass defense EPA allowed−0.079 #29
+0.4 #61Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−0.6 #70
+2.0 #76Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−6.4 #22
Situational
+0.5% #47Passing-down success (3rd & long)+0.6% #45
−0.1% #66Passing-down success allowed−3.8% #27
+0.08 #63Points per drive−0.01 #68
+0.11 #67Points per drive allowed−0.84 #21
Trenches
−0.15 #112Line yards per rush+0.31 #34
−0.40 #19Line yards per rush allowed+0.24 #108
+0.9% #107Runs stuffed at the line−3.8% #41
+7.5% #6Opponent runs stuffed−6.9% #137
−0.8% #82Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.2% #46
+2.3% #26Havoc created−1.6% #93
Big plays
+0.040 #59Rushing explosiveness−0.067 #103
+0.113 #68Passing explosiveness+0.057 #98
−0.06 #61Open-field yards per rush−0.30 #97
−0.128 #19Pass explosiveness allowed−0.160 #12
Style and schedule
54% #96Run rate56% #61
−6.6 #71Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+3.6 #10
Syracuse: last 5 games
| L26-34 | Covered | |
| L25-28 | Covered | |
| W42-41 | Missed | |
| L13-27 | Missed | |
| L18-21 | Missed |
North Carolina: last 5 games
| W24-20 | Covered | |
| W21-17 | Covered | |
| L26-37 | Covered | |
| L20-28 | Missed | |
| W35-3 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekSYRUNC
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UNC −9.5 | 47.5 | SYR +285 · UNC −360 |
| BEAVER fair line | UNC −10.5 | 52.0 | SYR +294 · UNC −294 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| SYR | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 1-4 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 4-3 |
| 5-2 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 31.6 / 26.3 | Points for / against | 24.4 / 20.9 |
| +5.3 | Avg margin | +3.6 |
| +5.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.7 |
| 78.1 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.6 |