BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › UCLA at Oregon
UCLANo. 77-0away
17
FinalAutzen Stadium, 56°, wind 9 mph
Oregon4-3home
15
BEAVER ORE −10.5, lostBEAVER Under 57.5, wonBEAVER had ORE 83% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (UCLA–ORE)21–3633–32–17–15
SpreadORE −15.6UCLA −1.2ORE −10.5UCLA by 2ORE −10.5 ✗
Total56.865.357.532Under 57.5 ✓
ORE win chance83%–−425Lost
UCLA by 14+
3%
UCLA by 1–13
13%
ORE by 1–13
29%
ORE by 14+
54%

Spread: 5.1 pts better than Vegas for Oregon (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened ORE −12.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.092 #27Offense EPA / play+0.168 #12
−0.072 #26Defense EPA / play allowed−0.119 #10
+4.8% #20Offense success rate+4.8% #22
−2.5% #34Defense success rate allowed−6.1% #12
+0.283 #1Rushing EPA / play+0.117 #32
−0.136 #98Passing EPA / play+0.190 #14
−0.039 #37Rush defense EPA allowed−0.015 #47
−0.124 #20Pass defense EPA allowed−0.255 #4
+9.5 #11Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+14.8 #5
−3.3 #39Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−5.3 #21
Situational
+0.1% #53Passing-down success (3rd & long)+4.3% #23
−2.9% #37Passing-down success allowed−4.5% #23
+0.68 #26Points per drive+2.15 #6
−0.43 #36Points per drive allowed−0.93 #11
Trenches
+0.75 #1Line yards per rush+0.29 #38
−0.28 #23Line yards per rush allowed−0.28 #24
−5.1% #25Runs stuffed at the line−4.9% #28
+2.7% #32Opponent runs stuffed−0.0% #72
−1.9% #58Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−5.2% #9
+1.7% #27Havoc created+2.8% #18
Big plays
+0.115 #30Rushing explosiveness+0.058 #50
+0.016 #106Passing explosiveness+0.258 #25
+0.90 #4Open-field yards per rush−0.19 #75
+0.177 #122Pass explosiveness allowed−0.059 #44
Style and schedule
58% #36Run rate53% #108
−6.2 #58Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−5.3 #46

UCLA: last 4 games

W54-3
atMaryland
Covered
W52-38
vsPurdue
Covered
W28-10
vsSan Diego State
Covered
W45-24
atCalifornia
Covered

Oregon: last 4 games

W41-27
atUSC
Covered
W84-0
vsPortland State
Covered
L31-39
atOklahoma State
Missed
W34-27
vsBoise State
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.07+0.16+0.26+0.36Entering week123456UCLA · 1: −0.00UCLA · 2: +0.13UCLA · 3: +0.13UCLA · 4: +0.11UCLA · 5: +0.16UCLA · 6: +0.16Oregon · 1: +0.33Oregon · 2: +0.25Oregon · 3: +0.17Oregon · 4: +0.20Oregon · 5: +0.29Oregon · 6: +0.29
● UCLA● Oregon