College football scores › Week 6 › Tennessee at Arkansas
BEAVER TENN −13.5, lostBEAVER Over 51.5, lostBEAVER had TENN 82% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TENN–ARK) | 34–20 | 34–15 | – | 24–17 | |
| Spread | TENN −14.7 | TENN −19.5 | TENN −13.5 | TENN by 7 | TENN −13.5 ✗ |
| Total | 53.7 | 49.0 | 51.5 | 41 | Over 51.5 ✗ |
| ARK win chance | 18% | – | +425 | Lost |
TENN by 14+
52%
TENN by 1–13
30%
ARK by 1–13
14%
ARK by 14+
4%
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for Tennessee (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.086 #29Offense EPA / play−0.048 #82
−0.149 #6Defense EPA / play allowed+0.092 #99
+3.1% #35Offense success rate+2.6% #42
−4.1% #22Defense success rate allowed+0.4% #68
+0.277 #2Rushing EPA / play+0.029 #73
−0.139 #101Passing EPA / play−0.076 #84
+0.013 #57Rush defense EPA allowed+0.113 #113
−0.244 #6Pass defense EPA allowed+0.046 #69
+10.5 #9Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.2 #83
−4.8 #27Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.8 #72
Situational
−4.3% #97Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.4% #86
−4.0% #27Passing-down success allowed−2.6% #43
+1.31 #12Points per drive−0.36 #82
−0.48 #34Points per drive allowed+0.59 #100
Trenches
+0.65 #4Line yards per rush+0.07 #76
+0.07 #78Line yards per rush allowed+0.06 #75
−6.8% #7Runs stuffed at the line−3.7% #45
+0.3% #64Opponent runs stuffed−2.3% #104
−1.0% #75Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.1% #103
+4.0% #9Havoc created−1.7% #96
Big plays
+0.195 #7Rushing explosiveness−0.034 #92
−0.015 #115Passing explosiveness−0.085 #129
+0.26 #26Open-field yards per rush−0.54 #121
−0.297 #2Pass explosiveness allowed−0.119 #24
Style and schedule
61% #19Run rate50% #121
−2.7 #35Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+3.4 #11
Tennessee: last 5 games
| W24-14 | Covered | |
| L17-20 | Covered | |
| W42-9 | Missed | |
| W45-24 | Covered | |
| W56-9 | Missed |
Arkansas: last 5 games
| L7-34 | Missed | |
| W34-6 | Covered | |
| L17-45 | Missed | |
| L10-43 | Missed | |
| W31-14 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekTENNARK
Loading the thread…
No box score for this game yet.
Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | TENN −13.5 | 51.5 | TENN −575 · ARK +425 |
| BEAVER fair line | TENN −14.7 | 53.7 | TENN −456 · ARK +456 |
Loading…
Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| TENN | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 3-2 | Conference | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 2-6 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 32.2 / 16.2 | Points for / against | 21.0 / 26.7 |
| +16.0 | Avg margin | -5.7 |
| +3.3 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.4 |
| 66.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.3 |