College football scores › Week 6 › Kent State at Western Michigan
BEAVER WMU −14, wonBEAVER had WMU 88% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (KENT–WMU) | 13–31 | 11–29 | – | 7–38 | |
| Spread | WMU −18.0 | WMU −18.6 | WMU −14 | WMU by 31 | WMU −14 ✓ |
| Total | 43.5 | 40.3 | 43.5 | 45 | |
| WMU win chance | 88% | – | −575 | Won |
KENT by 14+
2%
KENT by 1–13
10%
WMU by 1–13
27%
WMU by 14+
60%
Spread: 4.0 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Opened WMU −13.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.191 #130Offense EPA / play−0.055 #87
+0.071 #82Defense EPA / play allowed+0.055 #78
−9.4% #136Offense success rate−0.1% #73
+6.0% #121Defense success rate allowed+4.2% #106
−0.142 #130Rushing EPA / play+0.019 #78
−0.144 #106Passing EPA / play−0.128 #95
+0.071 #92Rush defense EPA allowed+0.051 #86
+0.072 #81Pass defense EPA allowed+0.063 #78
−13.2 #133Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−7.8 #107
+8.0 #121Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.3 #44
Situational
−11.4% #133Passing-down success (3rd & long)−5.8% #105
+3.3% #98Passing-down success allowed+5.4% #119
−1.54 #134Points per drive−0.75 #97
+1.99 #137Points per drive allowed+0.20 #74
Trenches
−0.26 #123Line yards per rush−0.08 #103
+0.30 #118Line yards per rush allowed+0.17 #93
+0.7% #103Runs stuffed at the line−1.6% #75
−1.6% #94Opponent runs stuffed−2.5% #108
+1.1% #120Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.9% #37
−1.7% #94Havoc created−3.1% #120
Big plays
−0.012 #82Rushing explosiveness−0.040 #95
+0.317 #13Passing explosiveness−0.198 #137
−0.72 #130Open-field yards per rush−0.60 #126
−0.062 #43Pass explosiveness allowed−0.064 #40
Style and schedule
58% #41Run rate65% #8
−5.9 #56Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−10.8 #94
Kent State: last 5 games
| L10-13 | Covered | |
| W26-13 | Covered | |
| L3-59 | Missed | |
| W36-15 | Covered | |
| L0-57 | Missed |
Western Michigan: last 5 games
| W20-17 | Missed | |
| L7-32 | Missed | |
| W28-21 | Missed | |
| W49-14 | Covered | |
| L12-13 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekKENTWMU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WMU −14 | 43.5 | KENT +425 · WMU −575 |
| BEAVER fair line | WMU −18 | 43.5 | KENT +700 · WMU −700 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| KENT | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 2-2 | Conference | 3-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 3-2 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 5-3 | Over/under | 4-4 |
| 14.9 / 30.5 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 20.4 |
| -15.6 | Avg margin | +6.2 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.0 |
| 56.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.2 |