BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › Iowa at Washington
Iowa5-2away
41
FinalHusky Stadium, 53°, wind 6 mph
Washington4-3home
24
BEAVER IOWA +2.5, wonBEAVER Under 41.5, lostBEAVER had IOWA 61% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (IOWA–WASH)23–1821–18–41–24
SpreadIOWA −4.2IOWA −3.2WASH −2.5IOWA by 17IOWA +2.5 ✓
Total41.138.741.565Under 41.5 ✗
WASH win chance39%–−155Lost
IOWA by 14+
26%
IOWA by 1–13
34%
WASH by 1–13
27%
WASH by 14+
12%

Spread: 6.7 pts better than Vegas for Iowa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened WASH −1.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.024 #55Offense EPA / play−0.017 #73
−0.089 #22Defense EPA / play allowed−0.048 #38
+0.9% #57Offense success rate+0.7% #60
−6.2% #11Defense success rate allowed−1.8% #43
+0.047 #62Rushing EPA / play−0.022 #95
+0.055 #41Passing EPA / play−0.034 #70
−0.168 #8Rush defense EPA allowed−0.069 #29
+0.115 #92Pass defense EPA allowed+0.017 #62
+1.2 #56Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−2.1 #74
−10.3 #6Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−3.3 #38
Situational
−4.9% #99Passing-down success (3rd & long)−4.6% #98
−5.2% #14Passing-down success allowed−0.9% #55
+0.52 #35Points per drive−0.33 #80
−1.12 #5Points per drive allowed−0.43 #37
Trenches
+0.25 #47Line yards per rush+0.10 #71
−0.30 #19Line yards per rush allowed−0.18 #39
−5.8% #18Runs stuffed at the line−0.1% #95
+2.9% #29Opponent runs stuffed+5.8% #9
−4.8% #14Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.8% #60
−0.2% #61Havoc created+1.1% #34
Big plays
+0.078 #43Rushing explosiveness−0.043 #98
−0.091 #130Passing explosiveness−0.032 #121
+0.20 #30Open-field yards per rush−0.32 #91
+0.188 #126Pass explosiveness allowed+0.043 #86
Style and schedule
54% #89Run rate50% #124
−1.9 #29Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−7.5 #64

Iowa: last 5 games

L14-31
vsOhio State
Missed
W20-19
atMichigan
Covered
W55-0
vsNorthern Iowa
Covered
W16-13
vsIowa State
Missed
W40-0
vsNorthern Illinois
Covered

Washington: last 5 games

L21-25
atUSC
Covered
L24-27
vsMinnesota
Missed
W48-16
vsEastern Washington
Missed
W16-14
vsUtah State
Missed
W24-10
vsWashington State
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.01+0.04+0.09+0.14+0.20Entering week123456Iowa · 1: +0.13Iowa · 2: +0.18Iowa · 3: +0.10Iowa · 4: +0.17Iowa · 5: +0.16Iowa · 6: +0.11Washington · 1: +0.13Washington · 2: +0.10Washington · 3: +0.05Washington · 4: +0.06Washington · 5: +0.04Washington · 6: +0.03
● Iowa● Washington