BEAVER
College football scores › Week 6 › North Dakota State at UNLV
North Dakota State6-2away
7
FinalAllegiant Stadium, indoors
UNLV4-3home
13
BEAVER UNLV +2.5, wonBEAVER had UNLV 63% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (NDSU–UNLV)21–2623–23–7–13
SpreadUNLV −5.4UNLV −0.3NDSU −2.5UNLV by 6UNLV +2.5 ✓
Total47.546.547.520
UNLV win chance63%–+110Won
NDSU by 14+
11%
NDSU by 1–13
26%
UNLV by 1–13
34%
UNLV by 14+
29%

Spread: 7.9 pts better than Vegas for UNLV (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Opened NDSU −3.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
−0.054 #86Offense EPA / play−0.095 #106
−0.072 #25Defense EPA / play allowed+0.020 #63
−3.9% #106Offense success rate−6.0% #123
+1.5% #80Defense success rate allowed+0.1% #66
−0.020 #93Rushing EPA / play−0.057 #108
−0.042 #73Passing EPA / play−0.131 #96
−0.135 #17Rush defense EPA allowed+0.091 #103
−0.003 #50Pass defense EPA allowed−0.041 #36
−3.2 #82Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.4 #91
−0.6 #56Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.3 #68
Situational
−3.4% #87Passing-down success (3rd & long)−8.0% #117
−4.5% #22Passing-down success allowed−0.9% #56
−0.07 #69Points per drive−0.82 #102
+0.20 #75Points per drive allowed−0.03 #62
Trenches
−0.11 #104Line yards per rush+0.01 #89
+0.10 #86Line yards per rush allowed+0.45 #131
−0.1% #97Runs stuffed at the line−1.4% #76
−0.4% #75Opponent runs stuffed−2.9% #113
−0.8% #81Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.0% #104
−1.0% #73Havoc created−0.1% #60
Big plays
+0.136 #22Rushing explosiveness+0.052 #54
+0.279 #19Passing explosiveness+0.132 #58
−0.45 #110Open-field yards per rush+0.04 #46
+0.022 #77Pass explosiveness allowed+0.198 #128
Style and schedule
60% #27Run rate57% #46
−22.5 #137Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.8 #76

North Dakota State: last 5 games

W28-0
vsWyoming
Covered
W31-10
atSacramento State
Missed
W38-32
atAir Force
Covered
W38-0
vsFordham
Missed
W33-7
vsJacksonville State
Covered

UNLV: last 5 games

W39-31
vsCalifornia
Covered
W38-10
atAkron
Covered
L6-44
atNorth Texas
Missed
W21-6
atHawai'i
Covered
L21-27
vsMemphis
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.24−0.17−0.10−0.03+0.04Entering week123456North Dakota State · 1: −0.16North Dakota State · 2: +0.02North Dakota State · 3: −0.01North Dakota State · 4: +0.02North Dakota State · 5: +0.01North Dakota State · 6: +0.02UNLV · 1: −0.06UNLV · 2: −0.09UNLV · 3: −0.19UNLV · 4: −0.22UNLV · 5: −0.13UNLV · 6: −0.12
● North Dakota State● UNLV