BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Texas A&M at Alabama
Texas A&M4-4away
20
FinalBryant-Denny Stadium, 76°, wind 7 mph
AlabamaNo. 106-2home
31
BEAVER ALA −13.5, lostBEAVER Over 50.5, wonBEAVER had ALA 84% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (TA&M–ALA)18–3417–37–20–31
SpreadALA −16.0ALA −20.2ALA −13.5ALA by 11ALA −13.5 ✗
Total52.053.650.551Over 50.5 ✓
ALA win chance84%–−575Won
TA&M by 14+
3%
TA&M by 1–13
13%
ALA by 1–13
29%
ALA by 14+
55%

Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Alabama (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened ALA −2.5.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.019 #57Offense EPA / play+0.193 #7
−0.077 #27Defense EPA / play allowed−0.196 #4
+2.1% #47Offense success rate+7.8% #10
−4.9% #20Defense success rate allowed−8.6% #6
+0.081 #42Rushing EPA / play+0.197 #10
−0.004 #60Passing EPA / play+0.210 #12
−0.080 #28Rush defense EPA allowed−0.273 #1
−0.133 #19Pass defense EPA allowed−0.095 #26
+2.3 #48Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+14.4 #4
−7.3 #21Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−10.7 #5
Situational
+0.6% #46Passing-down success (3rd & long)+2.1% #32
−6.4% #10Passing-down success allowed−6.4% #11
+0.80 #22Points per drive+1.68 #7
−0.85 #19Points per drive allowed−1.43 #2
Trenches
+0.28 #40Line yards per rush+0.47 #14
−0.18 #39Line yards per rush allowed−1.02 #1
−4.0% #34Runs stuffed at the line−4.2% #29
+0.9% #51Opponent runs stuffed+8.3% #4
−3.3% #30Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.8% #84
+0.3% #46Havoc created+3.5% #10
Big plays
−0.001 #79Rushing explosiveness+0.083 #36
−0.055 #124Passing explosiveness+0.173 #45
−0.24 #85Open-field yards per rush+0.51 #8
+0.032 #79Pass explosiveness allowed+0.081 #98
Style and schedule
56% #58Run rate55% #71
−2.5 #41Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+9.5 #2

Texas A&M: last 5 games

W41-0
vsThe Citadel
Missed
L6-27
atMissouri
Missed
W34-7
vsArkansas
Covered
L6-35
atLSU
Missed
L21-31
vsKentucky
Missed

Alabama: last 5 games

L10-26
atTennessee
Missed
L17-20
vsGeorgia
Missed
W56-23
atMississippi State
Covered
W49-18
vsSouth Carolina
Covered
W50-36
vsFlorida State
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.04+0.10+0.24+0.37+0.51Entering week12345678Texas A&M · 1: +0.23Texas A&M · 2: +0.27Texas A&M · 3: +0.30Texas A&M · 4: +0.09Texas A&M · 5: +0.05Texas A&M · 6: +0.08Texas A&M · 7: +0.08Texas A&M · 8: +0.10Alabama · 1: +0.30Alabama · 2: +0.33Alabama · 3: +0.40Alabama · 4: +0.39Alabama · 5: +0.38Alabama · 6: +0.47Alabama · 7: +0.46Alabama · 8: +0.39
● Texas A&M● Alabama