College football scores › Week 7 › Troy at Louisiana
BEAVER UL −3, wonBEAVER Over 48.5, lostBEAVER had UL 71% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (TROY–UL) | 21–29 | 23–29 | – | 6–33 | |
| Spread | UL −8.6 | UL −6.1 | UL −3 | UL by 27 | UL −3 ✓ |
| Total | 50.3 | 52.1 | 48.5 | 39 | Over 48.5 ✗ |
| UL win chance | 71% | – | −148 | Won |
TROY by 14+
8%
TROY by 1–13
22%
UL by 1–13
34%
UL by 14+
37%
Spread: 5.6 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.8 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened UL −3.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.059 #92Offense EPA / play−0.071 #93
+0.097 #102Defense EPA / play allowed−0.018 #42
−2.0% #89Offense success rate−4.0% #104
+3.1% #92Defense success rate allowed+2.5% #89
+0.007 #80Rushing EPA / play+0.054 #60
−0.078 #89Passing EPA / play−0.108 #94
+0.065 #89Rush defense EPA allowed−0.152 #13
+0.102 #85Pass defense EPA allowed+0.137 #100
−4.4 #88Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−4.1 #87
+5.4 #102Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+1.6 #75
Situational
−4.9% #103Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.2% #74
+1.2% #82Passing-down success allowed+4.7% #112
−0.97 #107Points per drive−0.68 #99
+0.39 #90Points per drive allowed+0.07 #65
Trenches
−0.04 #93Line yards per rush+0.06 #82
−0.07 #53Line yards per rush allowed−0.05 #59
+0.4% #102Runs stuffed at the line−0.7% #89
+2.6% #35Opponent runs stuffed+2.9% #31
+0.5% #111Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.8% #85
−2.2% #103Havoc created+0.4% #51
Big plays
−0.020 #87Rushing explosiveness+0.153 #16
+0.165 #46Passing explosiveness+0.027 #101
−0.00 #52Open-field yards per rush−0.23 #80
+0.096 #98Pass explosiveness allowed−0.163 #16
Style and schedule
58% #43Run rate63% #13
−13.3 #113Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.7 #109
Troy: last 5 games
| W55-34 | Covered | |
| L10-21 | Missed | |
| L17-27 | Covered | |
| W34-17 | Missed | |
| W24-21 | Missed |
Louisiana: last 5 games
| L31-32 | Covered | |
| W23-20 | Missed | |
| W34-7 | Covered | |
| W21-14 | Push | |
| L30-49 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekTROYUL
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | UL −3 | 48.5 | TROY +124 · UL −148 |
| BEAVER fair line | UL −8.6 | 50.3 | TROY +241 · UL −241 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| TROY | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-3 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-3 |
| 2-5 | Against the spread | 5-2-1 |
| 1-6 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 22.9 / 24.9 | Points for / against | 30.1 / 21.2 |
| -2.0 | Avg margin | +8.9 |
| -6.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.1 |
| 68.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |