College football scores › Week 7 › Wake Forest at California
BEAVER WAKE −10, wonBEAVER Under 53.5, wonBEAVER had WAKE 75% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (WAKE–CAL) | 32–21 | 37–19 | – | 41–7 | |
| Spread | WAKE −10.6 | WAKE −18.3 | WAKE −10 | WAKE by 34 | WAKE −10 ✓ |
| Total | 52.4 | 55.5 | 53.5 | 48 | Under 53.5 ✓ |
| CAL win chance | 25% | – | +310 | Lost |
WAKE by 14+
42%
WAKE by 1–13
33%
CAL by 1–13
19%
CAL by 14+
6%
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Wake Forest (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically). Opened WAKE −8.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
+0.117 #22Offense EPA / play−0.083 #100
−0.075 #28Defense EPA / play allowed+0.054 #77
+3.9% #31Offense success rate−3.2% #99
−2.9% #31Defense success rate allowed−1.2% #46
+0.139 #23Rushing EPA / play−0.123 #125
+0.131 #27Passing EPA / play−0.022 #64
−0.117 #19Rush defense EPA allowed+0.141 #120
−0.072 #32Pass defense EPA allowed−0.027 #43
+5.9 #25Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−3.3 #80
−6.3 #21Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+3.3 #88
Situational
+6.9% #10Passing-down success (3rd & long)−3.4% #85
−1.4% #57Passing-down success allowed−4.8% #18
+0.88 #20Points per drive−0.61 #95
−0.83 #17Points per drive allowed+0.06 #64
Trenches
+0.17 #60Line yards per rush−0.34 #128
−0.52 #11Line yards per rush allowed+0.27 #109
−1.8% #73Runs stuffed at the line+1.9% #119
+10.2% #1Opponent runs stuffed−5.5% #133
−4.3% #17Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.7% #88
−0.2% #58Havoc created−1.7% #97
Big plays
+0.023 #61Rushing explosiveness+0.004 #75
+0.153 #55Passing explosiveness+0.091 #76
−0.14 #67Open-field yards per rush−0.51 #117
−0.241 #6Pass explosiveness allowed+0.179 #130
Style and schedule
56% #64Run rate44% #137
+0.1 #17Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.7 #65
Wake Forest: last 5 games
| W38-14 | Covered | |
| W57-3 | Covered | |
| W30-27 | Covered | |
| L20-33 | Covered | |
| W38-36 | Missed |
California: last 5 games
| W25-20 | Covered | |
| L31-39 | Missed | |
| L10-24 | Missed | |
| W49-7 | Missed | |
| W21-18 | Covered |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekWAKECAL
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | WAKE −10 | 53.5 | WAKE −395 · CAL +310 |
| BEAVER fair line | WAKE −10.6 | 52.4 | WAKE −296 · CAL +296 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| WAKE | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 3-5 |
| 4-1 | Conference | 2-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-3 |
| 4-0 | Away | 1-2 |
| 5-2 | Against the spread | 2-6 |
| 3-4 | Over/under | 3-5 |
| 37.4 / 19.4 | Points for / against | 23.4 / 31.6 |
| +18.0 | Avg margin | -8.2 |
| +14.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.2 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.0 |