College football scores › Week 7 › Arkansas at Vanderbilt
BEAVER VAN −6, lostBEAVER Over 49.5, wonBEAVER had VAN 65% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (ARK–VAN) | 22–28 | 22–30 | – | 31–21 | |
| Spread | VAN −6.1 | VAN −7.1 | VAN −6 | ARK by 10 | VAN −6 ✗ |
| Total | 49.6 | 51.9 | 49.5 | 52 | Over 49.5 ✓ |
| VAN win chance | 65% | – | −225 | Lost |
ARK by 14+
10%
ARK by 1–13
25%
VAN by 1–13
34%
VAN by 14+
31%
Spread: 0.1 pts better than Vegas for Vanderbilt (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts above Vegas (52% historically). Opened VAN −6.5.
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.044 #89Offense EPA / play−0.020 #75
+0.082 #93Defense EPA / play allowed−0.013 #45
+2.6% #44Offense success rate−1.2% #78
+0.6% #69Defense success rate allowed−0.7% #52
−0.017 #88Rushing EPA / play+0.118 #34
−0.056 #81Passing EPA / play−0.040 #73
+0.077 #97Rush defense EPA allowed−0.024 #43
+0.081 #79Pass defense EPA allowed+0.013 #59
−3.7 #85Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−1.3 #74
−0.2 #60Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.8 #67
Situational
−5.3% #106Passing-down success (3rd & long)−2.6% #80
−3.3% #33Passing-down success allowed−1.0% #60
−0.43 #88Points per drive−0.15 #76
+0.37 #87Points per drive allowed+0.11 #67
Trenches
−0.04 #92Line yards per rush+0.28 #38
−0.05 #58Line yards per rush allowed−0.13 #44
−2.9% #54Runs stuffed at the line−3.5% #44
−1.0% #83Opponent runs stuffed−0.8% #81
+0.1% #103Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−2.1% #51
−1.4% #92Havoc created−1.2% #84
Big plays
−0.083 #111Rushing explosiveness+0.159 #14
−0.094 #133Passing explosiveness+0.088 #77
−0.54 #122Open-field yards per rush−0.47 #111
−0.003 #63Pass explosiveness allowed+0.110 #107
Style and schedule
51% #116Run rate54% #92
+4.7 #9Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+1.7 #14
Arkansas: last 5 games
Vanderbilt: last 5 games
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekARKVAN
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | VAN −6 | 49.5 | ARK +185 · VAN −225 |
| BEAVER fair line | VAN −6.1 | 49.6 | ARK +186 · VAN −186 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| ARK | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-5 |
| 1-3 | Conference | 0-5 |
| 2-2 | Home | 3-2 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 3-4 | Against the spread | 3-5 |
| 2-5 | Over/under | 5-3 |
| 21.0 / 26.7 | Points for / against | 22.8 / 30.2 |
| -5.7 | Avg margin | -7.5 |
| -2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.0 |
| 59.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.1 |