BEAVER
College football scores › Week 7 › Missouri at Ole Miss
MissouriNo. 235-2away
3
FinalVaught-Hemingway Stadium, 65°, wind 14 mph
Ole MissNo. 125-2home
31
BEAVER MIZ +5.5, lostBEAVER Under 58.5, wonBEAVER had MISS 62% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (MIZ–MISS)25–3031–28–3–31
SpreadMISS −4.7MIZ −3.2MISS −5.5MISS by 28MIZ +5.5 ✗
Total55.559.158.534Under 58.5 ✓
MISS win chance62%–−185Won
MIZ by 14+
12%
MIZ by 1–13
26%
MISS by 1–13
33%
MISS by 14+
28%

Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Missouri (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically). Opened MISS −6.

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.063 #37Offense EPA / play+0.198 #7
−0.157 #9Defense EPA / play allowed+0.024 #68
+1.1% #57Offense success rate+10.8% #5
−8.9% #6Defense success rate allowed+0.7% #71
+0.062 #55Rushing EPA / play+0.146 #22
+0.100 #33Passing EPA / play+0.244 #9
−0.176 #7Rush defense EPA allowed+0.044 #78
−0.120 #21Pass defense EPA allowed+0.000 #55
+4.2 #32Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+10.1 #11
−8.5 #10Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−2.5 #43
Situational
+0.7% #42Passing-down success (3rd & long)+6.4% #15
−7.4% #8Passing-down success allowed−0.5% #64
+0.41 #44Points per drive+1.37 #12
−0.98 #11Points per drive allowed−0.41 #39
Trenches
+0.15 #64Line yards per rush+0.15 #66
−0.71 #5Line yards per rush allowed−0.14 #42
−2.5% #59Runs stuffed at the line−0.9% #84
+6.6% #8Opponent runs stuffed+4.0% #24
−1.3% #69Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−3.9% #26
+5.6% #2Havoc created−0.4% #63
Big plays
−0.022 #89Rushing explosiveness+0.114 #25
+0.150 #57Passing explosiveness+0.020 #106
+0.13 #41Open-field yards per rush−0.18 #73
+0.071 #91Pass explosiveness allowed−0.016 #57
Style and schedule
58% #37Run rate51% #112
−3.3 #41Strength of schedule (avg opponent)+1.4 #15

Missouri: last 5 games

W27-6
vsTexas A&M
Covered
W45-17
vsFlorida
Covered
L24-31
atMississippi State
Missed
W27-17
vsTroy
Missed
W38-21
atKansas
Covered

Ole Miss: last 5 games

W52-17
atVanderbilt
Covered
L28-52
atFlorida
Missed
W32-24
vsLSU
Covered
W41-9
vsCharlotte
Missed
W41-38
vsLouisville
Missed

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.02+0.05+0.11+0.18+0.25Entering week1234567Missouri · 1: +0.15Missouri · 2: +0.09Missouri · 3: +0.16Missouri · 4: +0.16Missouri · 5: +0.17Missouri · 6: +0.23Missouri · 7: +0.22Ole Miss · 1: +0.19Ole Miss · 2: +0.15Ole Miss · 3: +0.09Ole Miss · 4: +0.17Ole Miss · 5: +0.15Ole Miss · 6: +0.13Ole Miss · 7: +0.17
● Missouri● Ole Miss