College football scores › Week 6 › Rice at East Carolina
BEAVER ECU −10, wonBEAVER Over 46.5, lostBEAVER had ECU 83% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (RICE–ECU) | 17–32 | 19–29 | – | 12–28 | |
| Spread | ECU −15.2 | ECU −9.7 | ECU −10 | ECU by 16 | ECU −10 ✓ |
| Total | 48.4 | 48.1 | 46.5 | 40 | Over 46.5 ✗ |
| ECU win chance | 83% | – | −380 | Won |
RICE by 14+
3%
RICE by 1–13
14%
ECU by 1–13
30%
ECU by 14+
53%
Spread: 5.2 pts better than Vegas for East Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.104 #108Offense EPA / play−0.004 #70
+0.094 #100Defense EPA / play allowed−0.014 #51
−3.7% #102Offense success rate+0.1% #70
+2.5% #88Defense success rate allowed−2.2% #39
−0.011 #88Rushing EPA / play+0.024 #76
−0.278 #131Passing EPA / play−0.048 #75
+0.176 #130Rush defense EPA allowed+0.053 #87
−0.058 #30Pass defense EPA allowed−0.088 #24
−8.7 #117Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−5.6 #94
+4.5 #94Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+0.1 #66
Situational
−8.7% #123Passing-down success (3rd & long)−7.3% #114
+5.1% #113Passing-down success allowed+3.0% #94
−0.93 #106Points per drive−0.34 #81
+0.81 #109Points per drive allowed+0.31 #88
Trenches
−0.05 #99Line yards per rush−0.16 #112
+0.17 #98Line yards per rush allowed−0.17 #43
+0.1% #100Runs stuffed at the line−0.2% #93
−2.2% #102Opponent runs stuffed+5.4% #11
−0.6% #90Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−0.6% #87
−1.5% #87Havoc created+0.2% #56
Big plays
+0.158 #13Rushing explosiveness+0.104 #33
+0.374 #7Passing explosiveness+0.114 #63
+0.22 #29Open-field yards per rush+0.78 #6
+0.039 #84Pass explosiveness allowed+0.059 #93
Style and schedule
77% #4Run rate56% #60
−2.7 #36Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−8.5 #73
Rice: last 5 games
| L14-16 | Covered | |
| L24-38 | Missed | |
| L21-28 | Covered | |
| L0-52 | Missed | |
| W31-3 | Covered |
East Carolina: last 4 games
| W42-9 | Missed | |
| W20-17 | Covered | |
| L24-27 | Missed | |
| L10-48 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekRICEECU
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ECU −10 | 46.5 | RICE +300 · ECU −380 |
| BEAVER fair line | ECU −15.2 | 48.4 | RICE +497 · ECU −497 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| RICE | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 3-4 |
| 0-4 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 1-3 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 4-4 | Over/under | 2-5 |
| 21.0 / 31.8 | Points for / against | 25.0 / 26.3 |
| -10.8 | Avg margin | -1.3 |
| -1.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.9 |
| 59.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.7 |