College football scores › Week 7 › Kennesaw State at Missouri State
BEAVER KENN −3, lostBEAVER Under 52.5, wonBEAVER had KENN 63% to win
BEAVER against the market
Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line| BEAVER | Sam | Market | Result | Call | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score (KENN–MOST) | 27–22 | 28–22 | – | 21–24 | |
| Spread | KENN −5.4 | KENN −6.0 | KENN −3 | MOST by 3 | KENN −3 ✗ |
| Total | 48.7 | 49.0 | 52.5 | 45 | Under 52.5 ✓ |
| MOST win chance | 37% | – | +120 | Won |
KENN by 14+
29%
KENN by 1–13
34%
MOST by 1–13
26%
MOST by 14+
11%
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Kennesaw State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Tale of the tape
BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.Efficiency
−0.078 #98Offense EPA / play−0.142 #120
+0.116 #108Defense EPA / play allowed+0.174 #130
−2.7% #94Offense success rate−5.3% #118
+3.9% #103Defense success rate allowed+7.2% #129
+0.013 #76Rushing EPA / play−0.060 #109
−0.146 #109Passing EPA / play−0.169 #112
+0.007 #62Rush defense EPA allowed+0.126 #113
+0.188 #113Pass defense EPA allowed+0.205 #118
−9.1 #115Scoring offense (pts vs avg)−9.8 #122
+2.1 #81Scoring defense (pts vs avg)+9.9 #128
Situational
−2.0% #71Passing-down success (3rd & long)−11.3% #133
+3.9% #105Passing-down success allowed+4.2% #110
−1.10 #114Points per drive−0.88 #103
+0.34 #82Points per drive allowed+1.26 #127
Trenches
+0.07 #79Line yards per rush−0.12 #105
+0.09 #83Line yards per rush allowed+0.31 #114
+3.0% #128Runs stuffed at the line−1.1% #81
+1.1% #54Opponent runs stuffed−4.1% #125
−1.2% #72Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)+2.5% #131
−3.0% #121Havoc created−2.3% #105
Big plays
+0.020 #66Rushing explosiveness−0.157 #127
−0.090 #130Passing explosiveness+0.162 #47
−0.48 #112Open-field yards per rush−0.45 #109
−0.187 #9Pass explosiveness allowed+0.027 #71
Style and schedule
53% #101Run rate51% #111
−9.2 #86Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−12.1 #104
Kennesaw State: last 5 games
| L26-27 | Covered | |
| L14-17 | Covered | |
| L9-42 | Covered | |
| L17-31 | Missed | |
| W47-0 | Covered |
Missouri State: last 5 games
| L13-34 | Missed | |
| L24-34 | Covered | |
| L24-30 | Missed | |
| W48-14 | Covered | |
| L0-50 | Missed |
Rating trend
BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each weekKENNMOST
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Closing lines
the last line before kickoff| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | KENN −3 | 52.5 | KENN −142 · MOST +120 |
| BEAVER fair line | KENN −5.4 | 48.7 | KENN −173 · MOST +173 |
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Tendencies
Season to date. Against the spread and over/under use closing lines.| KENN | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 0-3 | Conference | 1-2 |
| 1-3 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-4 |
| 4-3 | Against the spread | 3-4 |
| 1-6 | Over/under | 3-4 |
| 20.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 24.4 / 34.9 |
| -5.0 | Avg margin | -10.4 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.8 |
| 55.9 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.0 |