BEAVER
College football scores › Week 8 › Houston at Utah
HoustonNo. 186-2away
13
FinalRice-Eccles Stadium, 47°, wind 4 mph
UtahNo. 67-0home
21
BEAVER UTAH −6.5, wonBEAVER Over 57.5, lostBEAVER had UTAH 67% to win

BEAVER against the market

Locked at kickoff, graded on the closing line
BEAVERSamMarketResultCall
Score (HOU–UTAH)27–3425–29–13–21
SpreadUTAH −7.4UTAH −3.7UTAH −6.5UTAH by 8UTAH −6.5 ✓
Total60.853.457.534Over 57.5 ✗
UTAH win chance67%–−230Won
HOU by 14+
9%
HOU by 1–13
23%
UTAH by 1–13
33%
UTAH by 14+
34%

Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).

Tale of the tape

BEAVER Stats, opponent-adjusted, entering the game. Rank among 138 FBS teams.
Efficiency
+0.186 #8Offense EPA / play+0.159 #14
+0.014 #64Defense EPA / play allowed−0.054 #35
+10.2% #4Offense success rate+7.7% #11
−0.5% #52Defense success rate allowed−4.9% #19
+0.106 #35Rushing EPA / play+0.226 #4
+0.320 #4Passing EPA / play+0.091 #36
−0.047 #38Rush defense EPA allowed−0.007 #55
+0.053 #73Pass defense EPA allowed−0.079 #28
+8.0 #15Scoring offense (pts vs avg)+9.9 #9
−3.8 #35Scoring defense (pts vs avg)−6.2 #24
Situational
+12.6% #2Passing-down success (3rd & long)+11.4% #3
−1.2% #51Passing-down success allowed−1.2% #50
+1.30 #13Points per drive+1.36 #12
−0.30 #43Points per drive allowed−0.53 #31
Trenches
+0.48 #12Line yards per rush+0.54 #7
−0.21 #36Line yards per rush allowed−0.16 #45
−5.4% #18Runs stuffed at the line−2.3% #64
+0.5% #62Opponent runs stuffed+3.0% #35
−6.9% #4Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU)−1.5% #67
+4.0% #8Havoc created+0.0% #56
Big plays
−0.183 #132Rushing explosiveness+0.176 #8
+0.147 #54Passing explosiveness+0.016 #106
−0.31 #98Open-field yards per rush+0.25 #25
+0.076 #95Pass explosiveness allowed+0.072 #93
Style and schedule
61% #19Run rate56% #63
−3.4 #48Strength of schedule (avg opponent)−6.2 #67

Houston: last 5 games

W35-32
vsOklahoma State
Missed
W35-16
atKansas State
Covered
W27-17
vsUCF
Missed
W42-28
atGeorgia Southern
Missed
L26-28
atTexas Tech
Covered

Utah: last 5 games

W27-24
atColorado
Missed
W41-24
vsKansas
Covered
W31-17
atIowa State
Covered
W33-0
vsUtah State
Covered
W43-10
vsArkansas
Covered

Rating trend

BEAVER Stats: net EPA per play against an average team, entering each week
−0.03+0.05+0.12+0.20+0.27Entering week12345678Houston · 1: +0.01Houston · 2: −0.01Houston · 3: +0.08Houston · 4: +0.14Houston · 5: +0.17Houston · 6: +0.14Houston · 7: +0.19Houston · 8: +0.17Utah · 1: +0.16Utah · 2: +0.11Utah · 3: +0.14Utah · 4: +0.14Utah · 5: +0.24Utah · 6: +0.24Utah · 7: +0.25Utah · 8: +0.21
● Houston● Utah